Investment insights

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In a world increasingly defined by rapid technological advancements and global uncertainties, J.P. Morgan has released its 2025 Principal Discussions Report, offering a unique glimpse into the minds of some of the world's wealthiest families. This comprehensive study, conducted by J.P. Morgan’s 23 Wall Team, captures the voices and strategies of 111 billionaire principals from 28 countries and over 15 industries, providing a rare perspective on how wealth is managed and preserved across generations.

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Redefining wealth and success

The report reveals a shift in how these affluent families perceive wealth and success. A significant 90% of the principals interviewed believe that true wealth is not merely monetary but encompasses time, health, and relationships. Nearly 85% of these individuals define success through their ability to help others and lead with values. Andrew L. Cohen, Executive Chairman of J.P. Morgan's Global Private Bank, highlights this paradigm shift: "Principals remind us that prosperity is about much more than financial capital. Their perspectives challenge us all to rethink what it means to build enduring wealth, placing purpose, connection, and stewardship at the very heart of their journey."

This focus on values and relationships is echoed across continents and generations. The principals stress the importance of legacy, leadership, and the impact made on others, underscoring a broader understanding of prosperity.

Navigating geopolitical risks

Geopolitical tensions emerge as a prominent concern among these wealthy families, with 63% citing it as their top worry. The report highlights anxieties about global conflict, market volatility, climate change, and the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence. Natacha Minniti, Head of 23 Wall International and Global Co-Head of Family Office Practice at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, points out, "In APAC, where proximity to geopolitical flashpoints is a lived reality, families are shifting focus from preservation to preparedness. With 67% citing geopolitical tensions as their top concern, the call for agile, diversified, and future-ready strategies is louder than ever."

These concerns are not just limited to global events but intersect with personal and societal anxieties, such as the future of work and wealth disparity.

Balancing AI opportunities with human judgment

Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping both personal and professional spheres for the world's wealthiest families. According to the report, 79% of principals use AI for everyday tasks like research, writing, and travel planning, while 69% leverage AI for business purposes, such as data analysis and strategic planning. However, there is a cautious approach to this technological integration. Cohen observes, "AI is opening new doors for families and their enterprises, but true success lies in balancing innovation with discernment. Technology is a powerful enabler, yet it’s human values and judgment that create lasting impact."

While many principals appreciate AI's potential to save time and enhance decision-making, they also emphasise the enduring need for human insight and context.

Evolving investment strategies

The investment strategies of these affluent families are also evolving, with 75% diversifying globally and showing a rising interest in private and specialty assets such as sports teams, art, and cars. Cohen notes, "Ownership has evolved from a hobby into a sophisticated business and a unifying force for families, offering both financial returns and opportunities for community impact. Even luxury collectibles, once held purely for enjoyment, are now sometimes used as collateral to meet liquidity needs."

This shift reflects a broader trend where families are not only seeking financial returns but also meaningful engagement and legacy. Investments in specialty assets are driven by genuine passion and a desire to make a lasting impact, demonstrating that passion and purpose are as important as profit in today’s wealth management landscape.

Philanthropy and legacy

Philanthropy plays a central role in the ethos of these wealthy families. Over 70% of principals are deeply engaged in structured and accountable giving, viewing it as a way to unite the family and inspire future generations. As one principal shared, "When I think about my legacy, I think about giving back." This dedication to philanthropy underscores the belief that true wealth is measured less by financial capital and more by the legacy of values, relationships, and impact left behind.

The report by J.P. Morgan provides an invaluable look into the evolving priorities of the world’s wealthiest families, highlighting a shift towards values-driven leadership and the integration of innovation with traditional principles of stewardship. As these families navigate an uncertain world, their focus on purpose, connection, and resilience offers lessons for anyone seeking to build enduring wealth with lasting impact.

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In a world increasingly defined by rapid technological advancements and global uncertainties, J.P. Morgan has released its 2025 Principal Discussions Report, offering a unique glimpse into the minds of some of the world's wealthiest families. This comprehensive study, conducted by J.P. Morgan’s 23 Wall Team, captures the voices and strategies of 111 billionaire principals from 28 countries and over 15 industries, providing a rare perspective on how wealth is managed and preserved across generations.

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Morgan unveils insights from the world's wealthiest families in 2025 report" } [1]=> object(stdClass)#9014 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19220) ["title"]=> string(83) "RBA keeps the playbook open: how to navigate an “anything-can-happen” rate path" ["alias"]=> string(76) "rba-keeps-the-playbook-open-how-to-navigate-an-anything-can-happen-rate-path" ["introtext"]=> string(425) "

The Reserve Bank has kept its options open on interest rates, signalling neither cuts nor hikes are off the table. For boards and CFOs, that ambiguity is not a bug — it’s the game. With the cash rate sitting at a 12‑year high and inflation still sticky, this is a scenario-planning economy, not a point-forecast one. Here’s the Q&A that turns policy ambiguity into strategic advantage.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8024) "

Q1: What exactly did the Governor signal — and why does it matter for business?

The Reserve Bank maintained its “open options” stance: there is no pre-committed path for rates. While internal technical assumptions still contemplate a cut in 2026, the Governor underscored that near‑term moves depend on incoming data — notably consumer prices and the labour market, the two pillars of the Bank’s mandate. The RBA has previously held the cash rate at 4.35%, a 12‑year high, and stated it was “not ruling anything out” as underlying inflation remained above target (RBA communications, Nov 2024). Recent commentary reiterates that both further tightening and eventual easing are contingent outcomes rather than baselines.

Why it matters: Funding costs, asset valuations and consumer demand are all rate‑sensitive. When policy is explicitly data‑dependent, businesses must shift from single‑track budgets to dynamic planning. In short: certainty is out; resilience is in.

Q2: How should CFOs model the next 12–18 months under an “open options” RBA?

Run three live scenarios and wire them into capital allocation:

• Base case (hold): Cash rate broadly steady while inflation cools in steps. Actions: keep hurdle rates elevated; prioritise projects with 18–24 month paybacks; extend vendor terms where feasible; stress‑test covenants quarterly.
• Upside (gradual disinflation → late easing): Discretionary demand improves; debt service relief emerges. Actions: dust off backlog capex; pre‑fund at tenor before the cycle turns; accelerate customer acquisition where lifetime value is rate‑sensitive (e.g., mortgages, big‑ticket retail).
• Downside (one more hike if inflation re-accelerates): Margin pressure and weaker volumes. Actions: shift mix to higher‑margin SKUs; convert more debt to fixed; activate pricing escalators; pause non‑essential headcount growth.

Operationalise with finance metrics: sensitivity the weighted average cost of capital (±150 bps), maintain at least 1.5x interest coverage headroom, and test working capital under a 10–15% demand shock. Boards should set a “trigger matrix” linking macro prints (quarterly CPI, unemployment) to pre‑agreed actions on pricing, inventory and funding.

Q3: Which sectors are most exposed — and where are the near‑term openings?

Property and broking: High rates suppress borrowing capacity, but broker volumes can stabilise on refinance churn. Industry coverage notes that broking and lending behaviours have adjusted to policy uncertainty, with mortgage professionals watching CPI and jobs data closely. Early movers in digital servicing and triage could capture share as sentiment turns.

Banks and non‑bank lenders: Net interest margins hold while deposit competition stays intense. The opportunity is in risk‑based pricing and retention analytics; a disciplined approach to serviceability buffers can keep arrears contained even if the RBA surprises.

Retail and consumer goods: Rate‑sensitive categories (furniture, electronics) remain fragile until easing is credible. Winners are those deploying granular price elasticity models and loyalty data to protect contribution margin while holding volume.

Capex‑heavy industries (infrastructure, energy, transport): Higher discount rates compress project NPVs. Projects with regulated or CPI‑linked revenues are advantaged; contracts with inflation pass‑throughs outperform.

Tech and SaaS: Valuation multiples remain tethered to the cost of capital. Strong net revenue retention and efficient growth (Rule of 40+) will differentiate ahead of any policy pivot.

Q4: What competitive advantages can early adopters build while rates stay uncertain?

Three pragmatic moats:

• Balance‑sheet agility: Optimise the fixed–floating mix; ladder maturities; get a standing hedging mandate from the board. Even a 25 bp surprise is meaningful on large facilities; optionality beats prediction.
• Inflation‑aware revenue design: Bake in CPI indexation and dynamic pricing where market structure allows. Use A/B tests to locate elasticity thresholds; feed outcomes back into SKU strategy and promotions.
• Data‑driven forecasting: Apply advanced analytics to forecast cash flow and demand under macro pathways. Australia’s AI ecosystem has grown, but reports highlight a commercialisation gap into 2024–2025; firms that operationalise AI for finance and sales forecasting will convert uncertainty into cycle‑time advantage.

Governance matters. The Government’s AI consultation response (2024) and Australia’s AI Ethics Principles set expectations for safe, accountable AI use. The ATO’s work on governance for general‑purpose AI underscores controls, explainability and human oversight — critical if models inform treasury or credit decisions.

Q5: What are the on‑the‑ground implementation realities — and common failure modes?

Treasury execution: Don’t over‑hedge on a single macro view. Use rolling hedges and scenario‑weighted positions; codify stop‑loss and re‑balancing rules. Match hedge tenor to cash flows, not to headlines.

Commercial discipline: Create a rate pass‑through playbook by customer segment. Tie price changes to measurable cost drivers; equip sales with clear narratives and alternatives (longer contracts, volume tiers) to reduce churn.

Capital allocation: Move from annual budgets to quarterly portfolio reviews. Use a “WACC ladder” — different hurdle rates by risk bucket and duration — to avoid blunt yes/no outcomes.

People and culture: Incentivise speed to decision. Cross‑functional war rooms (finance, sales, supply chain) outperform siloed analysis when macro data lands.

Common pitfalls: waiting for perfect clarity; one‑way bets on cuts; ignoring covenant headroom; and deploying AI without controls, which invites model risk and regulatory pushback.

Q6: What’s the medium‑term outlook — and how should boards position for 2026?

The Bank’s “technical” assumption of a cut in 2026 is best treated as a placeholder, not a promise. External commentary in recent days has stressed it’s too early to call the next move, even as the RBA acknowledges inflation may sit above its 2–3% band longer than hoped. Globally, several central banks began easing earlier, while the RBA held firm through 2024 given domestic inflation dynamics — reinforcing that Australia’s cycle can decouple.

Board positioning:

• Three‑year funding map: Term out core debt now if pricing is acceptable; keep dry powder for opportunistic M&A as valuations adjust to the rate regime.
• Currency hedging: Policy divergence can move the AUD; exporters and importers should revisit hedge ratios and natural offsets.
• Portfolio resiliency: Preference businesses or contracts with inflation linkages, recurring revenue, or regulated returns. In property, prioritise projects with pre‑sales and cost pass‑throughs.
• Productivity wedge: Invest in automation and data to claw back margin while the cost of capital is elevated. This is where Australia’s AI commercialisation gap is a competitive opportunity for first movers.

Bottom line: The Governor has signalled a genuinely data‑dependent path. That’s a challenge for forecasters — and an opening for operators. The winners will be the firms that build options, not opinions.

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• Yes

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The Reserve Bank has kept its options open on interest rates, signalling neither cuts nor hikes are off the table. For boards and CFOs, that ambiguity is not a bug — it’s the game. With the cash rate sitting at a 12‑year high and inflation still sticky, this is a scenario-planning economy, not a point-forecast one. Here’s the Q&A that turns policy ambiguity into strategic advantage.

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A surprise upside in quarterly inflation has shifted the Reserve Bank of Australia’s calculus: a cut now looks less likely, and a prolonged plateau in rates more probable. For CFOs, that changes the cashflow, capex and refinancing math—and sharpens the imperative to find productivity gains, not just cost cuts. Global signals are mixed—weak labour markets in the US and UK argue for easing, but inflation surprises keep central banks cautious. Here’s the pragmatic Q&A leaders need to take into the next board meeting.

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Q1: What just changed in the macro picture—and how does it shape the next RBA decision?

The latest quarterly CPI came in hotter than consensus, nudging markets to price a longer hold at current levels rather than an imminent cut. Put simply: the RBA’s flexible 2–3 per cent inflation target buys it patience on growth, but not indulgence on upside surprises. While some Australian labour market prints have softened at the margin, recent commentary underscores the tug-of-war: weak employment data briefly lifted cut odds, yet “stronger August inflation figures promptly reversed expectations,” as a Pendal Group note observed. The balance of probabilities now favours a hold, with the RBA preferring clearer disinflation evidence before easing.

Q2: What’s the operational impact for businesses—cashflow, capex and refinancing?

High-for-longer rates act like a slow leak in the P&L: interest expense, working capital drag and tighter lending standards combine to compress free cash flow. Three CFO moves stand out:

- Reprice capital: Reset hurdle rates and WACC assumptions for 2025. A 50–100 bps higher-for-longer scenario can flip marginal projects from green to amber; stage-gate capex accordingly.

- Fortify liquidity: Extend maturities opportunistically and stagger refis to avoid 2026–2027 cliffs. Tie revolvers to inventory cycles and customer prepayments rather than historical volumes.

- Precision working capital: Shorten DSO with dynamic discounting; lengthen DPO via supplier financing programs. Even 3–5 days of net improvement can offset one to two turns of rate pressure on interest expense for mid-market firms.

Q3: Which sectors win or wobble if rates plateau for longer?

- Interest-sensitive and consumer: Property, discretionary retail and autos remain most exposed to carrying costs and demand elasticity. Real estate transaction volumes face a stubborn ceiling while borrowing costs stay elevated; sellers reprice slowly, buyers wait longer.

- Resources: The resources complex is not immune to rates, but commodity cycles dominate. The Department of Industry’s September 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly flagged a softer outlook for lithium, with export earnings forecast to fall from $9.9 billion in 2023–24—tempering investment appetite in parts of energy transition supply chains. Higher funding costs plus weaker price decks mean stricter capital discipline for junior miners.

- Exporters and software: Firms with USD-linked revenue or high gross margins (SaaS, IP-heavy niches) are comparatively insulated and can lean into currency tailwinds and pricing power.

Global context matters. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent in August 2025, a near four-year high, which pushed investors to price more aggressive US cuts. The UK has also seen a weaker labour market. Yet surprise inflation prints in multiple economies have kept policymakers cautious. Translation: Australia’s cut timing is data-dependent, not calendar-driven.

Q4: Where’s the competitive edge—what should first movers do now?

In a high funding-cost regime, advantage accrues to operators who compound small efficiencies into margin resilience:

- Dynamic pricing and mix: Use elasticity-informed price ladders to protect unit economics; shift mix to higher contribution SKUs and services.

- Supply-side arbitrage: Rebid logistics and energy contracts; index more inputs to market benchmarks to share volatility with suppliers.

- Treasury sophistication: Deploy natural hedges and layered interest-rate hedging (caps/swaptions) to smooth cashflows without overpaying for protection. Treat hedge ratios as strategic, not set-and-forget.

- Productivity tech, not vanity AI: Australia’s AI ecosystem has been strong on adoption but weaker on commercialisation, according to 2025 ecosystem analyses. That’s an opening. Focus on measurable use cases—forecast accuracy, invoice automation, fraud detection—rather than broad pilots. With the National AI Centre’s initiatives (e.g., AI Month 2024 at SXSW Sydney) raising capability, early movers can codify ROI while competitors experiment.

Q5: What’s the implementation reality—where do transformations stall?

- Data plumbing beats dashboards: AI or advanced analytics require reconciled, labelled, permissioned datasets. Many Australian enterprises find the build cost sits in data engineering, not model selection. Budget accordingly.

- Governance and risk: The Australian Government’s 2024 interim responses on AI governance emphasise controls for general-purpose AI. Align model usage with policy, audit trails and human-in-the-loop for material decisions to avoid compliance risk and reputational cost.

- Bank covenants and comms: With rates on hold but elevated, revisit covenants before they tighten. Proactive disclosure to lenders about pricing, cost actions and hedging can expand headroom and reduce spread.

- Workforce elasticity: Balance selective hiring freezes with capability sprints in revenue operations, procurement and data. Protect change capacity; under-investing in enablement is the surest way to miss the value story.

Q6: How should boards frame scenarios for 2025—what does global signalling imply?

Base case: RBA on hold near term, with a conditional easing path in 2025 if disinflation reasserts. Downside inflation risk (sticky services) delays cuts; downside growth risk (weaker labour demand) accelerates them. International markers: in the US, two soft jobs reports in a row have already led markets to expect faster cuts; in the UK, a weaker jobs market has similarly tilted expectations—but both face the same constraint Australia does when inflation surprises. Build three scenarios: Hold through mid-2025; One-and-done cut; Gradual easing starting H1 2025. Tie each to action triggers—capex release thresholds, M&A timing, and hedge rebalancing bands.

Q7: What’s the 12–18 month playbook—practical moves leaders can execute now?

- Pricing discipline: Quarterly repricing cadence with customer comms that link value to inflation inputs; lock in long-term contracts where you hold differentiation.

- Refinance readiness: Run a shadow ratings review; prepare dual-track debt placements (bank + private credit) to improve certainty and terms.

- Cost-to-serve analytics: Map margin by segment and channel; exit unprofitable micro-segments or introduce minimum order quantities and fees.

- AI for operational ROI: Start with two use cases that prove value in 90 days—collections prioritisation and supply planning. Australia’s commercialisation gap is a chance to differentiate; document gains and reinvest.

- Sector watch: If resources cashflows soften (e.g., lithium), expect tightening in project finance. Diversify funding sources and consider vendor/royalty structures.

Bottom line: The inflation surprise trims the odds of near-term relief from the RBA. Don’t wait for the cut to restore margins. Build resilience into pricing, procurement and treasury now—and let productivity compounding, not macro hope, do the heavy lifting.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-05 22:00:02" ["slug"]=> string(98) "19165:hotter-cpi-cooler-cuts-what-the-rba-pause-means-for-balance-sheets-pricing-and-2025-strategy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9509 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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A surprise upside in quarterly inflation has shifted the Reserve Bank of Australia’s calculus: a cut now looks less likely, and a prolonged plateau in rates more probable. For CFOs, that changes the cashflow, capex and refinancing math—and sharpens the imperative to find productivity gains, not just cost cuts. Global signals are mixed—weak labour markets in the US and UK argue for easing, but inflation surprises keep central banks cautious. Here’s the pragmatic Q&A leaders need to take into the next board meeting.

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Global gold demand surged to record levels in the September quarter as investors sought safety amid volatile markets and growing geopolitical uncertainty, according to the World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 Gold Demand Trends report.

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Quarterly gold demand — including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions — reached 1,313 tonnes (t), equivalent to US$146 billion in value terms, marking the highest quarter for gold demand on record.

The report showed that investment demand was the key driver, rising 47 per cent year-on-year (y/y) to 537t and accounting for 55 per cent of total net gold demand. The increase was attributed to “a powerful combination of an uncertain and volatile geopolitical environment, US dollar weakness and investor FOMO as the price climbed higher.”

Investors continued to pour into physically backed gold ETFs for a third consecutive quarter, adding 222t (US$26 billion) in inflows. Year to date, global ETF holdings have grown by 619t (US$64 billion), led by North American funds (346t), followed by Europe (148t) and Asia (118t).

Bar and coin investment also strengthened, up 17 per cent y/y to 316t, with significant contributions from India (92t) and China (74t).

Conversely, jewellery demand fell 19 per cent y/y in Q3, weighed down by record-high prices. Although both India and China recorded quarter-on-quarter growth due to seasonal trends, consumption remained weaker than a year earlier.

Central bank demand also strengthened, with net purchases of 220t in Q3 — up 28 per cent on Q2 and 10 per cent y/y — despite the record-high gold price. Year-to-date central bank net buying totalled 634t, remaining above pre-2022 levels.

On the supply side, total gold supply reached a quarterly record of 1,313t, up 3 per cent y/y, driven by a 2 per cent rise in mine production to 977t and a 6 per cent increase in recycling to 344t.

Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council, said gold’s climb towards US$4,000 per ounce underscored the strength of demand drivers throughout 2025.

“Gold’s climb towards US$4,000/oz in the third quarter underscores the strength and persistence of the factors that have been driving demand throughout the year,” Ms Street said.

“Heightened geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflationary pressures and uncertainty around global trade policy have all fuelled appetite for safe-haven assets as investors look to build resilience in their portfolios.”

She added that gold’s outlook remains optimistic, supported by ongoing US dollar weakness and lower interest rate expectations.

“The outlook for gold remains optimistic, as continued US dollar weakness, lower interest rate expectations, and the threat of stagflation could further propel investment demand. Gold has set record after record this year, and the current environment suggests there could be more upside gains for gold. Our research indicates the market is not yet saturated, and the strategic case to hold gold remains firmly in place.”

Shaokai Fan, Head of Asia (ex-China) and Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said Australia was among the markets showing strong investment growth.

“Australian investment demand for physical bars and coins rose 30 per cent y/y, marking the second biggest y/y jump in demand since the Q1 2025 record of 45 per cent, signalling a deepening strategic interest in gold among Australian investors,” Mr Fan said.

“Quarterly jewellery demand in Australia fell 10 per cent year-on-year, around half the global rate of decline (-19 per cent), indicating a comparatively resilient local jewellery market.”

Together, these trends lifted total Australian gold consumption by 12 per cent y/y to 5t in Q3, he said.

Mr Fan noted that locally listed gold ETFs added 7.2 tonnes in 2025 to date, lifting assets under management (AUM) by A$1.1 billion (US$724 million) to a total of A$9 billion (US$6.1 billion) by the end of September.

“The surge in global ETF holdings marks a major structural demand wave for gold, joining renewed central bank buying and growing emerging market investment,” he said.

“Despite the recent pull back, we believe gold’s fundamental drivers will continue to support its accumulation in portfolios.”

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Global gold demand surged to record levels in the September quarter as investors sought safety amid volatile markets and growing geopolitical uncertainty, according to the World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 Gold Demand Trends report.

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Global deal activity has declined by 4 per cent year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2025 as deal-making slowed across regions and sectors, according to data and analytics firm GlobalData.

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The research found that the total number of deals — covering mergers and acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing — fell during Q1–Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year.

GlobalData’s Deals Database revealed a downturn across all deal types and regions, reflecting a shift towards caution amid persistent economic uncertainty.

M&A activity, which typically drives overall deal trends, recorded a 3 per cent year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025, suggesting that companies are becoming more selective amid a challenging economic landscape.

Venture financing fell by about 5 per cent, while private equity transactions recorded the steepest decline, down 15 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

“Deal-making sentiment has shifted towards caution, driven by challenging macroeconomic factors,” said Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData.

“The overall trend suggests that while the appetite for deals remains, the focus has shifted towards quality and sustainability. This divergence underscores the varying dynamics within different markets, with some regions demonstrating stronger growth potential despite global challenges.”

Regionally, North America continues to lead global deal activity but recorded a 3 per cent decline in volume. Europe saw a sharper 7 per cent drop amid economic and geopolitical headwinds, while the Asia-Pacific region proved more resilient with only a 1 per cent fall, driven by growth in India and Japan.

Across other regions, deal volumes in the Middle East and Africa and South and Central America fell by around 11 and 10 per cent respectively.

The US remains the largest market despite a 3 per cent decrease in deal activity, while markets such as the UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, and the UAE also posted declines ranging from 4 to 23 per cent.

Conversely, India, China and Japan bucked the global trend. China’s deal volume edged up by 1 per cent year-on-year, India grew by 6 per cent, and Japan recorded a 10 per cent increase in activity during Q1–Q3 2025.

“The decline in global deal volume during the first three quarters of 2025 reflects a broader trend of cautious deal-making sentiment,” Bose said.

“While challenges persist, there are also opportunities for strategic investments. The focus will likely shift towards high-quality investments that can withstand the pressures of an uncertain economic climate.”

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-11-02 22:15:01" ["slug"]=> string(77) "19203:global-deal-activity-dips-4-amid-cautious-investor-sentiment-globaldata" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9531 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Global deal activity has declined by 4 per cent year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2025 as deal-making slowed across regions and sectors, according to data and analytics firm GlobalData.

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A four-year high in unemployment has put the Reserve Bank of Australia back in play, with major sell-side houses flagging a live risk of a November rate cut. For CFOs and boards, this is more than a headline: it’s a window to reset debt structures, re-sequence capex and reprice risk. With GDP up 0.6% q/q and 1.8% y/y through June (ABS), Australia’s growth pulse is stabilising even as the labour market softens—exactly the configuration the RBA has been guiding toward. The decision will ripple through wages, FX and asset prices; early movers can bank a competitive cost-of-capital edge.

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Key implication: An earlier-than-expected RBA cut would compress borrowing costs and weaken the Australian dollar on the margins, favouring debt-heavy balance sheets and exporters while challenging cash-rich operators and importers. The prize for leaders: lock in lower funding, accelerate productivity investments (especially AI), and hedge FX before the herd turns.

Macro pulse: a gentler labour market, firmer growth

The macro set-up is unusually symmetric. The RBA’s August 2024 Statement on Monetary Policy anticipated a gradual easing in the labour market that stabilises as GDP growth picks up. That’s roughly what we’re seeing: unemployment at a four-year high, but national accounts showing GDP rising 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year to June (ABS). In February 2025, the RBA noted, “We judge that the unemployment rate will increase a little further,” while monitoring inflation and the exchange rate in trade-weighted terms. The Commonwealth’s 2025–26 Budget also records that the Board reduced the cash rate in February—signalling a cautious easing bias already in train.

Against this backdrop, State Street’s call that a further cut is plausible in November sits on credible ground. The policy logic: as labour demand cools and inflation edges closer to target, the RBA can nudge borrowing costs down to buttress activity without re-igniting price pressures.

Transmission mechanics: why a 25bp move matters more than it sounds

Rate cuts flow through four channels that executives should model with discipline:

- Cashflow channel: variable-rate debt service declines almost immediately. For a mid-cap with $500m of floating debt, a 25bp cut yields roughly $1.25m in annualised pre-tax savings—often enough to green-light deferred maintenance or small automation pilots.

- Expectations channel: forward curves shift, compressing term premia. Even if your next bond tap is six months away, spreads can tighten as investors price a gentler path.

- Asset price channel: lower discount rates can re-rate equities and property, lifting collateral values and improving covenant headroom.

- Exchange rate channel: a softer cash rate typically weighs on the AUD in trade-weighted terms, improving price competitiveness for exporters but lifting costs for importers.

Markets have started to reflect this dynamic. Gold—in Australian dollars—has been supported near A$4,120/oz as global disinflation and softer US CPI lifted the odds of lower policy rates. A weaker AUD often correlates with local gold resilience, reinforcing the feedback loop.

Business impact and P&L triage

- Balance sheets: Highly levered operators (infrastructure, property, leveraged roll-ups) benefit first. Cash-rich firms face a marginal drag on interest income—offset by valuation tailwinds. Consider resetting the mix towards longer-dated fixed once the curve cheapens post-cut.

- Trade and FX: Exporters gain from a softer AUD, but should extend hedges now while implied vols remain contained. Import-intensive retailers need to revisit pricing ladders and supplier terms to protect gross margin.

- Labour and wages: A softer jobs market takes heat out of wage inflation, easing unit labour costs. For service businesses, this widens room to invest in training and technology without breaching operating margin targets.

- Property and housing: Even a modest cut can unlock mortgage refinancing and incrementally lift housing turnover—positive for building materials, furnishings and select consumer categories.

Competitive advantage: investing into the slope

Periods of easing are historically high-ROI windows to invest in productivity. Australia’s AI ecosystem has matured in adoption but lags in commercialisation, according to the National AI Centre’s 2025 analysis. That gap is opportunity. Early movers can deploy process automation, AI-enabled customer service, and risk analytics while financing costs are falling and labour markets are less tight.

A governance-led approach is essential. The Australian Taxation Office has articulated guardrails for the use of general-purpose AI, emphasising accountability and risk controls. Borrow that playbook: institute model inventories, data lineage, human-in-the-loop oversight and clear thresholds for escalation. With capital cheaper and wage pressure easing, the hurdle rate for these programmes drops—especially when paired with vendor co-investment and consumption-based cloud pricing.

Practical move: stand up an AI steering group to prioritise two- to three-quarter payback use cases (claims triage, invoice reconciliation, demand forecasting). Lock in vendor pricing before global demand re-accelerates.

Market context and sector read-through

- Banks: Net interest margins could compress at the edges, but credit quality stabilises as serviceability improves. Expect competition to intensify in refinancing; customer churn will spike. Data-driven retention will pay for itself.

- Consumer and retail: Volume recovery could precede price recovery. Use easing to renegotiate freight and supplier terms; protect mix with private label and targeted promotions.

- Resources: A softer AUD supports miners’ revenue translation. Gold producers, in particular, get a dual tailwind (AUD weakness and safe-haven demand).

- Infrastructure and utilities: Lower WACC lifts equity valuations and pipeline economics. Accelerate shovel-ready projects while construction markets soften.

- Tech and SaaS: Valuations are sensitive to discount rates; expect risk appetite to thaw. Extend runway via opportunistic converts or term debt while spreads are benign.

Implementation reality: scenario planning, not crystal balls

Build three policy paths into your 12-month plan:

- Base case: One 25bp cut by year-end, then a pause. Actions: refinance floating exposures opportunistically; layer hedges; stage capex in tranches tied to utilisation KPIs.

- Faster easing: Two cuts by Q1. Actions: bring forward capital projects with proven NPV; term out debt at the first sign of curve steepening.

- Hold: No cut. Actions: preserve flexibility; maintain liquidity buffers; prioritise opex-neutral productivity wins.

Operationally, rescore projects against a refreshed WACC, revise FX hedging bands aligned to the trade-weighted index, and tighten supplier SLAs with explicit CPI pass-through limits.

Outlook: what to watch and how to move

Management attention should pivot to three data clusters: labour (unemployment, underemployment), prices (trimmed mean inflation, unit labour costs), and currency (AUD TWI). The RBA’s framework—gradual labour market easing with stabilising growth—remains the central case. If incoming ABS prints confirm slack without rekindling inflation, a November cut is more likely than not.

Board-ready actions for the next 90 days:

- Debt: Pre-clear documentation to move quickly on refinancings; run reverse inquiries with lenders now.

- FX: Extend hedges on USD/EUR receivables; model AUD downside scenarios on inventory and COGS.

- Productivity: Ring-fence 0.5–1.0% of revenue for near-term automation and AI programmes under strong governance—ATO-style controls provide a domestic benchmark.

- Talent: Use cooling wage momentum to hire critical skills in data, cybersecurity and supply chain analytics at improved rates.

The strategic play is simple: don’t wait for the rate decision to be unanimous. Position balance sheets, capex and hedges to benefit from easing if it lands—without being exposed if it doesn’t. In a softening labour market with stabilising growth, optionality is the asset that outperforms.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-10-29 04:35:59" ["slug"]=> string(103) "19143:rba-easing-risk-returns-how-a-possible-november-cut-reshapes-capital-currency-and-competitiveness" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9542 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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A four-year high in unemployment has put the Reserve Bank of Australia back in play, with major sell-side houses flagging a live risk of a November rate cut. For CFOs and boards, this is more than a headline: it’s a window to reset debt structures, re-sequence capex and reprice risk. With GDP up 0.6% q/q and 1.8% y/y through June (ABS), Australia’s growth pulse is stabilising even as the labour market softens—exactly the configuration the RBA has been guiding toward. The decision will ripple through wages, FX and asset prices; early movers can bank a competitive cost-of-capital edge.

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