Investment insights

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Equity markets around the world celebrated last week after softer-than-expected US inflation data fueled hopes of interest rate cuts, but questions remain over whether the rally can be sustained as central banks continue to grapple with sticky price pressures.

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The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones all hit fresh record highs following the CPI release, while European and UK benchmarks also reached new peaks. However, some analysts warn that the market's optimism may be premature.

"The soft CPI data could've certainly marked the end of this year's positive trend but people still took into consideration that the producer price data released just a bit earlier than the US CPI last week came in hotter-than-expected," noted Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

She pointed to comments from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon that "costs linked to the green economy, remilitarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes, and large fiscal deficits may mean inflation will stay sticky".

Attention is now turning to earnings from technology giant Nvidia, seen as a bellwether for the AI-driven rally that has propelled markets higher this year. The chipmaker is expected to post sales of around $11 billion for the quarter, with strong demand for its AI chips likely to continue.

However, Nvidia shares are trading just below the $1,000 level, and Ms Ozkardeskaya said any disappointment in the results "has potential to trigger a broader market selloff, especially across the technology stocks".

"The price-to-estimated earnings of the S&P 500's technology sector bounced above the 28 level, which has acted as an important resistance since 2020. Therefore, the current levels could well be appropriate for a correction," she warned.

Central bank meetings will also be in focus this week, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to keep rates on hold at 5.5% and the Federal Reserve to release minutes from its last policy meeting. In the UK, inflation is tipped to fall sharply in April, potentially boosting rate cut bets.

Commodity prices are being supported by the prospect of looser monetary policy and fresh stimulus measures in China, with US crude oil testing $80 per barrel and copper futures hitting all-time highs.

But with valuations stretched and the path of inflation still uncertain, Ms Ozkardeskaya said markets may be vulnerable to a pullback. "Regardless of the warnings, the equity market cleared an important barrier to the present optimism," she said. "This week's results will either send [Nvidia] above this $1,000 level or trigger profit taking near it."

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Equity markets around the world celebrated last week after softer-than-expected US inflation data fueled hopes of interest rate cuts, but questions remain over whether the rally can be sustained as central banks continue to grapple with sticky price pressures.

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Friday's US jobs data brightened the mood among Federal Reserve (Fed) doves, as the nonfarm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, and wages all pointed to a slowing labour market in April, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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The US economy added 175,000 new nonfarm jobs last month, wages grew less than 4%, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, versus expectations of a steady 3.8%.

"The Fed won't be in a position to cut its interest rates right away, but is given a higher chance to do so a bit earlier than what was expected at the start of last week," Ozkardeskaya said.
"Odds for a September rate cut rose to more than 67% - even though, September would be a politically uncomfortable time for the Fed to start cutting rates given that the presidential election is just around the corner and no one at the Fed wants to be pointed at for manipulating the results."

The US 2-year yield briefly dipped to 4.70% after the soft jobs data, and the US dollar index tested the 50-day moving average to the downside. However, Ozkardeskaya noted that the inflation leg of the story is far from being resolved, and gains could remain limited.

In currency markets, the EURUSD tested the 1.08 resistance, near the 50 and 200-day moving averages and the year-to-date downtrending channel top, while the USDJPY briefly slipped below the 152 level.

The AUDUSD is better bid ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, with the bank expected to maintain its rate unchanged at 4.35% but possibly revise its inflation outlook upwards and deliver a hawkish message.

In equities, last week's dovish Fed pricing and better-than-expected earnings from Apple and Amazon helped the S&P 500 eke out a 0.6% gain, closing right on its 50-day moving average. Six of the "Magnificent 7" stocks have reported earnings so far, with results beating lofty market expectations.

"Beyond the Magnificent 7, 77% of the S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise so far, according to FactSet. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 printed a strong 5.0% - versus 3-4% expected by analysts," Ozkardeskaya said.

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Friday's US jobs data brightened the mood among Federal Reserve (Fed) doves, as the nonfarm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, and wages all pointed to a slowing labour market in April, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.

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Investors are bracing for a less-than-cheerful Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision later today, as the central bank grapples with three straight months of rising inflation, which may force it to reconsider its plans for a 2024 rate cut.

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According to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, the Fed may even drop its expectation of a rate cut in 2024 altogether, which would be the most dovish statement it could reasonably make at this point, given the latest economic data.

"Speaking of data, figures released yesterday came to back the idea that the Fed's inflation battle doesn't necessarily continue to move toward the right direction," Ozkardeskaya said.

The employment cost index rose more than expected in Q1, while consumer confidence sank below 100, which should result in slowing spending to help tame inflation – a trend that has not yet been seen.

The S&P 500 fell more than 1.5% yesterday, posting its worst performance this year, while the US 2-year yield advanced past 5% ahead of the Fed decision, and the US dollar extended gains for the fourth month.

Investors will be watching ADP, JOLTS, and PMI numbers today, but the strong jobs data and notable rise in US inflation in the first quarter cannot be ignored, and the Fed must address the issue by keeping rates higher for longer.

In contrast to the Fed's dovish hopes, AI-related stocks lived up to high expectations in Q1, with all but one of the "Magnificent 7" stocks surpassing market expectations. Amazon posted the best beat, with its AWS cloud platform growing 17% year-on-year and advertising services jumping 24%.

However, a weak sales forecast for the current quarter tempered optimism around Amazon's Q1 results, suggesting that AI growth may level out in Q2 and trigger some profit-taking in tech stocks.

In Europe, the Eurozone exited recession in Q1, growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, while core inflation slowed less than expected in April. These minor surprises could have weighed on European Central Bank (ECB) doves, but traders were preoccupied with pricing in Fed expectations, preventing the euro from countering the increased bullish pressure on the dollar.

In the energy sector, US crude slipped below $82 per barrel after the latest AI report showed an almost 5-million-barrel build in US oil inventories last week, with fading expectations of a Fed rate cut threatening the reflation boost.

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Investors are bracing for a less-than-cheerful Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision later today, as the central bank grapples with three straight months of rising inflation, which may force it to reconsider its plans for a 2024 rate cut.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(98) "/invest-money/investment-insights/fed-rate-cut-expectations-in-doubt-as-inflation-concerns-persist" ["image"]=> string(111) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1715025914/pexels-rdne-7414005_bzjbwm.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(64) "Fed rate cut expectations in doubt as inflation concerns persist" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#8266 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18557) ["title"]=> string(106) "Centuria announces senior internal promotions, strengthening leadership team for new property growth cycle" ["alias"]=> string(105) "centuria-announces-senior-internal-promotions-strengthening-leadership-team-for-new-property-growth-cycle" ["introtext"]=> string(177) "

Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI or "Centuria") has strengthened its senior management structure with several internal promotions, effective from Monday, 15 April 2024.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(3026) "

The new senior roles are part of a strategic plan to ensure Centuria is well-positioned to capitalise on market growth as the green shoots of real estate transactions gain momentum, indicating the potential eve of a new property cycle.

Jason Huljich, Centuria Joint CEO, said the company is proud to announce these senior roles have been filled by long-standing current members of the Centuria team who build on the legacy they have helped create.

Andrew Essey has been promoted to the newly created position of Chief Investment Officer (CIO), responsible for the Group's investment strategy, transactions, and institutional capital.

Previously, he was Group Head of Transactions and successfully executed more than $11 billion of direct real estate transactions between 2017 and 2024.

Essey said Centuria has a strong reputation for executing landmark real estate transactions through leveraging their deep industry relationships and broad skillsets, and he looks forward to continuing their strategic real estate platform expansion.

Jesse Curtis is appointed Head of Funds Management, responsible for both listed and unlisted property funds across the office, industrial, retail, healthcare and agricultural sectors, including more than 100 open and closed-end unlisted funds.

Previously, he was Centuria's Head of Industrial and Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) Fund Manager, increasing CIP's AUM to $3.9 billion from $1.2 billion.

Curtis said Centuria's fund management track record extends beyond 26 years and in this time the company has generated a strong $20 billion of real estate assets under management, and he believes they are well positioned to take advantage of emerging market conditions to further grow their portfolios and deliver compelling returns to their investors.

Grant Nichols is promoted to Head of Listed Funds and CIP Fund Manager, the latter of which will assume responsibility for Australia's largest listed pure-play industrial REIT.

Previously, he was Centuria's Head of Office and Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF) Fund Manager, increasing COF's AUM to $2.1 billion from $1.4 billion.

Belinda Cheung is promoted to COF Fund Manager, responsible for Australia's largest listed pure-play office fund.
From April 2022, Cheung was COF's Assistant Fund Manager.

Following Essey's promotion, Nathan Guo will assume the role of Head of Transactions, responsible for originating and managing the Group's property transactions across all real estate sectors.

Previously, he was Senior Transactions Manager across Office and Industrial.

Huljich concluded, "As Centuria evolves, we adjust our management structure to reflect our growth and ensure the most adept personnel are in place to lead each of our business divisions.

We congratulate Andrew, Jesse, Grant, Nathan and Belinda on their promotion and are confident they will build on Centuria's success in their new roles."

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Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI or "Centuria") has strengthened its senior management structure with several internal promotions, effective from Monday, 15 April 2024.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(139) "/invest-money/investment-insights/centuria-announces-senior-internal-promotions-strengthening-leadership-team-for-new-property-growth-cycle" ["image"]=> string(138) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1712887688/Andrew_Essey_Centuria_Chief_Investment_Officer_knbzzg.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(106) "Centuria announces senior internal promotions, strengthening leadership team for new property growth cycle" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8265 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18556) ["title"]=> string(82) "Institutions and wealth managers favour fixed income over equities, research shows" ["alias"]=> string(81) "institutions-and-wealth-managers-favour-fixed-income-over-equities-research-shows" ["introtext"]=> string(215) "

New research from Managing Partners Group (MPG), the international fund management group, shows professional investors believe fixed income is becoming more attractive than equities over the next 12 months.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(3180) "

Almost all (94%) questioned in the global study with institutional investors and wealth managers holding assets of €107 billion under management say fixed income is more attractive, with 17% saying it is becoming significantly more attractive.

The research by MPG, which runs the Melius Fixed Income Fund, found growing worries about a global recession and increased volatility in the equity markets, plus increased correlation between bonds and risk assets, is driving the shift in views.

US investment grade and European investment grade fixed income assets are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of institutional investors and wealth managers increasing their exposure to fixed income, but all asset classes will benefit.

The study found that 79% of investors are increasing exposure to US investment grade fixed income over the next 12 months, while 78% are increasing exposure to European investment grade.

For Swiss investment grade, 72% are increasing exposure, and for Swiss non-investment grade, 74% are increasing exposure.
European non-investment grade and US non-investment grade are also seeing increased exposure, with 69% and 48% of investors increasing exposure, respectively.

Professional investors still believe there is a possibility of a bond rally if major economies slip into recession.

Around 20% believe a bond rally is very likely in the next 12 months, rising to 42% saying a bond rally is very likely over the next 24 months.
Around 79% think a bond rally is quite likely in the next 12 months, while 57% believe it is quite likely over the next 24 months.

MPG has added Life Settlements to its Melius Fixed Income Fund, which invests in corporate and high yield bonds, targeting up to an equal split between life settlements and other assets.

Life Settlements are US-issued life insurance policies that have been sold by the original owner at a discount to their future maturity value.
They have little or no correlation to equities or bonds and currently deliver an inflation busting yield of 12%.

MPG says alternative asset classes in general are set to benefit from increased diversification as investors look for reasonable returns while equities are set for a tough year ahead.

"Fixed income assets are moving up the investment agenda with investors increasingly expecting continued volatility in the equity markets," said Jeremy Leach, Chief Executive Officer at MPG.

"In addition there is growing evidence that bonds are becoming more correlated with risky assets including equities.
However, if major economies do slide into recession that will increase the likelihood of a bond rally if not in the next 12 months, then in the next 24 months."

MPG's Melius Fixed Income Fund has returned 7.72% in the 12 months to January 2024, outperforming the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond benchmark by 5.39% over the period, benefiting from an exposure to fixed income in the USA, UK, Europe and Switzerland.
Melius has a yield driven investment strategy that carries less pricing sensitivity to interest rate movements.

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New research from Managing Partners Group (MPG), the international fund management group, shows professional investors believe fixed income is becoming more attractive than equities over the next 12 months.

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Gold prices have hit a fresh record high, nearing $2,300 an ounce in Thursday trading, and while geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are commonly cited as reasons for the surge, there are two surprising and often overlooked factors driving the rally, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

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Green acknowledges that the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East have contributed to the uncertainty in global markets, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have diminished the opportunity cost of holding gold, further enticing investors to enter the market.

However, he points out two critical elements that are often sidelined in discussions surrounding the surge in gold prices.

"Firstly, the expectation among some influential traders and analysts of a reacceleration of US inflation is prompting some to increase their gold holdings," Green notes. "The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation, rose by 2.8% in February, aligning with market expectations." As inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, traders who anticipate inflationary pressures to intensify are turning to gold as a reliable store of value, driving up demand and prices.

Secondly, Green highlights China's consistent accumulation of gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, as evidenced by Bloomberg data, as a significant factor in bolstering gold prices. "China's strategy of diversifying its central bank holdings to reduce reliance on the US dollar has led to substantial gold acquisitions," he explains. This diversification not only safeguards against currency volatility but also reflects China's broader ambition to assert economic independence and influence in the global financial landscape.

Looking ahead, Green believes that the momentum for gold will continue for the foreseeable future, as investors are reminded of its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset and as US economic rivals continue to move away from the dollar.

"The trajectory of gold prices remains intricately linked to the evolving macroeconomic landscape and geopolitical developments," he concludes. "While geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions will continue to influence short-term fluctuations, other factors driving predictions of upticks in inflation and China's gold acquisitions cannot be dismissed."

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Gold prices have hit a fresh record high, nearing $2,300 an ounce in Thursday trading, and while geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are commonly cited as reasons for the surge, there are two surprising and often overlooked factors driving the rally, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

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string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8823 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8452 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8450 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8451 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8479 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" 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"Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#8831 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8491 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8496 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8493 (3) { 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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(106) "/invest-money/investment-insights/gold-prices-soar-to-record-high-two-surprising-factors-fueling-the-surge" ["image"]=> string(113) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1712695788/pexels-pixabay-106152_mpzvts.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(73) "Gold prices soar to record high: Two surprising factors fueling the surge" } }