Property

array(6) { [0]=> object(stdClass)#8516 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18882) ["title"]=> string(78) "Home guarantee scheme shake-up challenges Australia’s housing market players" ["alias"]=> string(75) "home-guarantee-scheme-shake-up-challenges-australias-housing-market-players" ["introtext"]=> string(574) "

From 1 October 2025, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) materially widens what first-home buyers can purchase and where. By sharply lifting price caps and relaxing eligibility settings, the government has turned a rationed incentive into a demand accelerator. The near-term effect is clear: more buyers with viable deposits, a redistribution of competition across suburbs, and new pressure points for lenders and developers. The strategic challenge is managing the demand pulse without inflating prices or amplifying fiscal and credit risk.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8141) "

The headline implication is simple but significant: by enlarging the funnel of eligible buyers and properties overnight, the HGS expansion pushes more demand into price bands that were previously out of reach. Expect a scramble among lenders to capture volume, developers to price near the new caps, and policymakers to watch for unintended spillovers—especially in tightly supplied markets.

What changed—and why it matters

The HGS is a government guarantee that lets eligible buyers purchase with low deposits (as little as 5%) without paying lenders mortgage insurance (LMI). The October expansion lifts property price caps substantially across regions and relaxes key constraints (income and place limits), with the government also accelerating the start date by three months. In effect, it turns a capped, channelled scheme into a broader demand lever.

Industry data underscores the step change. According to economist Kaytlin Ezzy at research firm Cotality, under the old settings roughly one-third of listings fell within reach for eligible buyers; with the new caps, that rises to 63.1%—51.6% of houses and 93.7% of units. “The suburban map of attainability has shifted,” Ezzy notes, pointing to dramatically wider choice across outer-metro and regional growth corridors.

In policy terms, the shift is designed to double the pool of first-home buyer prospects. Pre-expansion, the HGS had supported more than 230,000 buyers (as at July 2025) with 50,000 annual places in 2023–24. Removing place limits and raising caps moves the mechanism from rationing to scaling.

Market dynamics: price effects cluster near the caps

Price-cap policy has a known side effect: bunching around thresholds. International analogues offer cautionary signals. The UK’s Help to Buy and Canada’s first-time buyer incentives both drove outsized activity in bands just below caps, with measurable, localised price uplift. Australia is primed for a similar pattern—especially in suburbs where the new cap intersects with median prices.

Two near-term effects are likely: first, a 1–3% uplift in transacted prices within ±5% of the new caps as buyers compete for a finite pool; second, a shift in bargaining power from buyers to vendors in those bands. The Housing Industry Association has flagged a probable first-wave price rise followed by stronger building activity if supply responds. Where supply is constrained (planning delays, labour bottlenecks), the first effect will dominate; where greenfield capacity exists, the second can catch up.

Lenders’ playbook: product, pricing and risk recalibration

For banks and non-banks, the opportunity is immediate but operationally demanding:

• Product and pricing: Expect sharper risk-based pricing for 90–95% LVR loans without LMI, and a resurgence of cashback-lite acquisition strategies in priority postcodes.
• Policy and credit operations: Automated credit policy engines must be reparameterised to the new caps by suburb. Pre-approval volumes will spike; decisioning SLAs will be tested.
• Broker channel: With brokers originating the majority of mortgages, lender education and eligibility calculators specific to the new caps will be table stakes.
• Capital and risk: While the government covers the guaranteed tranche, banks still bear macro risk. APRA stress tests assume higher arrears under rate or unemployment shocks; lenders will be selective on fringe-credit profiles despite the guarantee.

Net effect: second-tier banks and agile non-banks are set to win share via speed-to-yes and granular postcode coverage, while majors leverage balance-sheet trust and distribution heft.

Developers and builders: pivot to cap-adjacent product

Developers that can deliver stock at or just below the new caps will command outsized demand. Expect packaging of house-and-land offerings, townhouses and compact apartments targeting the cap sweet spot. However, implementation reality bites:

• Input costs remain elevated and volatile; fixed-price contracts carry margin risk.
• Planning approvals and infrastructure sequencing constrain shovel-readiness in several metros.
• Build-times remain longer than pre-pandemic norms, elongating cash conversion cycles.

Strategically, the smartest developers will stage releases to match demand pulses and hedge build-cost risk, while partnering with lenders for scheme-specific pre-approvals. Regional builders in growth corridors have an opening—if supply chains and trades availability are secured early.

Fiscal and systemic risk: contingent liabilities go up

The government’s guarantee broadens its balance-sheet exposure. Contingent liabilities scale with uptake and loan performance. Australia’s mortgage arrears are low by global standards, but tail risks are non-trivial if unemployment ticks up or if a price correction follows a demand run.

Risk management priorities include:

• Prudent eligibility filters (e.g., serviceability buffers above minimums for guaranteed loans).
• Active monitoring of postcode concentration to avoid clustering losses.
• Coordination with APRA on lender reporting to track arrears and equity trajectories in HGS cohorts.

For LMI providers, displacement risk is real on HGS-eligible loans; the strategic response is deeper penetration in non-eligible segments and value-added analytics for lenders on borrower resilience.

Equity and affordability: will access gains stick?

The scheme directly improves deposit feasibility and widens choice—particularly for units and outer-metro houses. But affordability is a two-variable equation: price and income. If the demand impulse outruns supply, gains can erode via higher entry prices. The most durable outcome couples the HGS with faster planning approvals, targeted infrastructure spend and incentives for build-to-rent and infill that relieve pressure in rental markets (a critical precursor for first-home saving).

Economists are split on the long-term effect. Optimists argue the scheme lifts homeownership by bringing forward buyers who would otherwise take years to save; sceptics warn it mainly time-shifts demand and raises prices near caps. The truth will hinge on supply response in the next 12–24 months.

What business leaders should do now

• Banks and non-banks: Stand up suburb-specific cap engines, streamline HGS pre-approvals, and tighten post-settlement early warning systems for new-to-market borrowers.
• Developers and builders: Reprice and re-scope pipelines to hit cap-adjacent price points; secure trades and materials early; explore lender partnerships for coordinated launches.
• Proptech and marketplaces: Build eligibility filters and buyer education tools around new caps; surface HGS-ready listings and monthly repayment scenarios.
• Institutional investors: Track cap-banded sales velocity for signals on resale risk; consider backing developers with shorter cash cycles and controlled cost bases.
• Policy teams: Pair the scheme with supply accelerators—planning reform, serviced land release, and targeted grants for medium-density near transport.

Outlook: a 12–24 month stress test

Base case: a front-loaded lift in first-home transactions, localised price pressure around caps, and a gradual supply response in build-ready corridors. Upside: if approvals and construction capacity loosen, price pressure moderates and ownership gains persist. Downside: if supply remains sticky and macro conditions soften, the scheme could inflate entry prices and raise contingent risk without meaningfully lifting net ownership.

Either way, the expanded HGS will reshape competition across lending, development and proptech. Early movers who price and execute to the new demand map—without losing discipline on risk—stand to gain the most.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-11 01:22:41" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-10 05:38:45" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-10 23:10:59" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(458) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-ivan-samkov-8962683_s1y6un","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757482614\/pexels-ivan-samkov-8962683_s1y6un.jpg","image_intro_alt":"Home guarantee scheme shake-up challenges Australia\u2019s housing market players","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Ivan Samkov","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(851) "Expect concentrated price competition and modest uplift around new cap thresholds; align pricing and stock to cap-adjacent bands to capture demand without overextending margins., Lenders that retool credit policy, calculators and broker enablement fastest will win share in HGS-eligible loans while containing risk via granular postcode and cohort monitoring., Developers with shovel-ready, cost-controlled projects in outer-metro and regional growth corridors can convert the demand pulse into sales velocity and cash flow., Government expansion raises contingent liabilities; pair uptake with robust stress testing, eligibility discipline and APRA-aligned arrears surveillance., The scheme’s success depends on supply response; link HGS strategy to planning reform, infrastructure timing and medium-density delivery to sustain affordability gains." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(137) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(8141) ["ordering"]=> int(16) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8496 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#972 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-10 23:10:59" ["slug"]=> string(81) "18882:home-guarantee-scheme-shake-up-challenges-australias-housing-market-players" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8988 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(800) "

From 1 October 2025, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) materially widens what first-home buyers can purchase and where. By sharply lifting price caps and relaxing eligibility settings, the government has turned a rationed incentive into a demand accelerator. The near-term effect is clear: more buyers with viable deposits, a redistribution of competition across suburbs, and new pressure points for lenders and developers. The strategic challenge is managing the demand pulse without inflating prices or amplifying fiscal and credit risk.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9016 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9022 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9018 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9017 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9015 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9003 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9024 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8949 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9023 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(98) "/invest-money/property/home-guarantee-scheme-shake-up-challenges-australias-housing-market-players" ["image"]=> string(118) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757482614/pexels-ivan-samkov-8962683_s1y6un.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(78) "Home guarantee scheme shake-up challenges Australia’s housing market players" } [1]=> object(stdClass)#8515 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18850) ["title"]=> string(75) "GSB’s first‑home buyer play: turning policy tailwinds into market share" ["alias"]=> string(68) "gsbs-firsthome-buyer-play-turning-policy-tailwinds-into-market-share" ["introtext"]=> string(620) "

Great Southern Bank’s latest results show that nearly one in three of its new mortgages now go to first‑home buyers—evidence of a fast‑moving market reshaped by government guarantees, easing rates and changing borrower demographics. Nationally, first‑home buyer loans grew 5.9% in 2024 to 125,220 and are projected to rise a further 6.5% in 2025. For lenders, this is not just a feel‑good story; it is a unit‑economics opportunity with strategic implications for product design, broker strategy and risk. Here’s how GSB executed—and what it means for the rest of the market.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(7086) "

Context: a demand surge meets a policy lever

Australia’s first‑home buyer (FHB) segment has re‑accelerated. In 2024, 125,220 FHB loans settled nationally (+5.9% year‑on‑year), with 2025 projected to reach 133,308 (+6.5%), outpacing broader owner‑occupier growth (projected +5.3% to 216,210). Average FHB loan size rose by about 6% in 2024, reflecting both price pressures and borrowers stretching into higher loan bands. The policy scaffolding matters: the Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) has provided up to 50,000 places annually across its variants, enabling deposits from 2–5% without lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), effectively transferring part of the credit risk through a government guarantee.

Against this backdrop, GSB disclosed that “nearly a third” of its new lending now serves FHBs. That aligns with broader industry observations from research houses such as PropTrack and CoreLogic: affordability remains strained, but targeted support plus easing interest‑rate expectations have reopened a path for entry. Broker channel share is now north of 70%, amplifying the effect of lenders that execute well with brokers.

Decision: bet on the segment where lifetime value is rising

GSB made a strategic call to over‑index to FHBs. The business logic stacks up on three dimensions: (1) growth: FHB demand is expanding faster than the overall owner‑occupier market; (2) lifetime value: younger borrowers produce a longer annuity stream and cross‑sell potential (transaction accounts, savings, insurance), offsetting thinner initial margins; and (3) share economics: in a broker‑led market, superior process speed and HGS fluency convert directly to market share. With competition pruning unsustainable cashbacks, execution quality—not headline rate alone—has become the differentiator.

Risk was the counterweight. Low‑deposit lending is inherently higher risk. The decision therefore hinged on GSB’s ability to ring‑fence that risk with policy guarantees, robust underwriting and granular pricing. Industry analysts at Lateral Economics and others have cautioned about policy‑induced demand without matching supply; a prudent FHB strategy must therefore be as much about credit selection as acquisition volume.

Implementation: product, policy alignment and broker execution

GSB’s operating model shows four practical levers that other lenders can copy:

- Policy alignment: Maximise HGS participation (First Home Guarantee, Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee, Family Home Guarantee) to reduce effective LVR risk and waive LMI costs for eligible borrowers.

- Risk‑tiered pricing and buffers: Maintain APRA‑aligned serviceability buffers while dynamically tiering rates by LVR and borrower profile. IFRS 9 modelling enables early‑stage expected credit loss (ECL) tracking by cohort, adjusting origination appetite in near real time.

- Digital straight‑through processing: Pre‑approval engines that validate income, expenses and deposit sources digitally reduce time‑to‑yes and abandonment. For brokers, API‑driven lodgements and clear policy matrices cut rework and re‑submissions.

- Education and segmentation: Serve distinct FHB sub‑segments—dual‑income metropolitan buyers, regional buyers using the Regional Guarantee, and later‑life first‑timers (divorcees, returning migrants). Content, calculators and proactive broker support reduce uncertainty and shorten decision cycles.

Technical deep dive: why guarantees change the unit economics

The HGS alters capital and pricing maths. A government guarantee on the unsecured portion above 80% LVR mitigates loss‑given‑default, reducing overall expected loss and, for many banks, capital intensity under APRA’s mortgage risk‑weight framework. Practically, that allows lenders to price closer to prime rates than would be possible for 90–95% LVR loans with LMI, while offering customers materially lower upfront cost. The trade‑off is strict eligibility, documentation rigour and quota management across guarantee tranches. In a broker‑dominated distribution model, lenders that automate eligibility checks and evidence capture see higher conversion and lower processing cost per settled loan.

Results: volume, share and conversion effects

The headline outcome is mix: nearly one in three new GSB mortgages now originate from FHBs. At a market level, growth is robust—125,220 FHB loans in 2024 and a projected 133,308 in 2025. With the broader owner‑occupier market projected at 216,210 loans in 2025, each 1 percentage point of share equates to roughly 2,162 loans. For a challenger bank, gaining 2–3 points of FHB share through faster approvals and guarantee fluency can be the difference between flat and high‑single‑digit book growth.

Conversion is the second win. Lenders reporting sub‑10‑day FHB time‑to‑approval via digital pre‑assessment typically see materially higher broker preference. Industry feedback suggests that where HGS eligibility is assessed up‑front, approval rates increase and settlement leakage falls. Finally, portfolio quality to date has remained resilient: arrears have ticked up from historic lows industry‑wide, but guarantee‑backed LVRs and conservative serviceability buffers have contained early‑stage delinquencies, according to analysts tracking the segment.

Market implications: competition, pricing and policy risk

GSB’s pivot intensifies competition for a finite pool of HGS places. Expect tighter pricing bands around high‑LVR loans for eligible customers, while non‑eligible FHBs may face higher rates or stricter serviceability. If interest rates continue to ease, demand could overshoot available guarantees, pushing borrowers into LMI‑backed routes and re‑widening the affordability gap. Economists remain split: some view the FHB surge as a healthy stimulus; others warn of distortion without supply‑side reform.

Lessons: a playbook for lenders, brokers and policymakers

- Lenders: Treat FHBs as a designed experience. Build HGS rules into product decisioning, expose policy logic to brokers, and measure end‑to‑end cost per settled loan by cohort. Balance growth with tight ECL triggers and post‑settlement support to reduce early hardship.

- Brokers: Lead with eligibility clarity. A clean HGS application with verified income and deposit sources cuts cycle time and boosts first‑choice placement with lenders investing in this segment.

- Policymakers: Guarantees lift demand; supply still constrains affordability. Calibrate place volumes and eligibility while pressing on planning reform and build‑to‑rent to avoid overheating entry‑level stock.

- Developers: The FHB buyer is back. Stock mix that targets sub‑threshold price points, regional hubs and smaller footprints will move faster if paired with lender pipelines fluent in guarantees.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 22:43:45" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-09 22:12:32" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 23:50:41" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(492) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-towfiqu-barbhuiya-3440682-8732777_fynvdt","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757453793\/pexels-towfiqu-barbhuiya-3440682-8732777_fynvdt.jpg","image_intro_alt":"GSB\u2019s first\u2011home buyer play: turning policy tailwinds into market share","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(962) "First‑home buyers are the fastest‑growing owner‑occupier segment in Australia, creating a high‑value acquisition lane for banks that design products and processes explicitly for HGS‑eligible borrowers., Guarantee‑backed lending changes unit economics: lower expected loss and capital intensity enable sharper pricing without resorting to unsustainable cashbacks, driving broker preference and market share., Each percentage point of owner‑occupier share in 2025 represents roughly 2, 162 loans; a 2–3 point gain via FHB execution can tilt a challenger bank to high‑single‑digit book growth., Operational edge—digital pre‑assessment, API broker lodgement, and embedded HGS eligibility—cuts time‑to‑yes, lifts conversion and reduces processing cost per settled loan., Policy tailwinds can reverse; lenders should maintain conservative buffers, dynamic ECL monitoring and diversified acquisition beyond guarantees to manage cycle risk." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(118) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(7086) ["ordering"]=> int(15) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#970 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8481 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 23:50:41" ["slug"]=> string(74) "18850:gsbs-firsthome-buyer-play-turning-policy-tailwinds-into-market-share" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8999 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(839) "

Great Southern Bank’s latest results show that nearly one in three of its new mortgages now go to first‑home buyers—evidence of a fast‑moving market reshaped by government guarantees, easing rates and changing borrower demographics. Nationally, first‑home buyer loans grew 5.9% in 2024 to 125,220 and are projected to rise a further 6.5% in 2025. For lenders, this is not just a feel‑good story; it is a unit‑economics opportunity with strategic implications for product design, broker strategy and risk. Here’s how GSB executed—and what it means for the rest of the market.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9027 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9033 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9029 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9028 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9026 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9014 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9035 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8925 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9034 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(91) "/invest-money/property/gsbs-firsthome-buyer-play-turning-policy-tailwinds-into-market-share" ["image"]=> string(132) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757453793/pexels-towfiqu-barbhuiya-3440682-8732777_fynvdt.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(75) "GSB’s first‑home buyer play: turning policy tailwinds into market share" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#8514 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18828) ["title"]=> string(80) "Why investors are fleeing and renters are scrambling in Australia's housing maze" ["alias"]=> string(99) "investor-exodus-meets-rental-scarcity-the-policy-risk-premium-now-driving-australias-housing-market" ["introtext"]=> string(505) "

Australia’s rental market is tightening even as individual landlords sell down. New data points to a multi‑year investor retreat tied to higher holding costs and regulatory uncertainty, while prices continue to drift up on scarce supply. The result is a policy-driven risk premium that is reshaping how capital flows into housing. Early movers—from lenders to institutional build‑to‑rent operators—are repositioning to capture the gap left by traditional investors.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8129) "

Key implication: Australia’s housing market has quietly repriced for policy risk. Higher holding costs and rule changes have increased the required return for small investors, many of whom are exiting. That shrinkage in private rental supply meets population growth and construction bottlenecks—driving rents up and hardening a structural opportunity for scale players with cheaper capital and operational leverage.

The numbers behind the turn

Industry data collated by the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) indicate a decisive shift: more than 7,000 individual investors exited in 2022–23—by their reckoning the weakest intake in roughly a quarter‑century outside major crises—and their 2024 survey reports 14.1% of investors sold at least one property in the past year. On the demand side, economists point to price resilience supported by constrained listings, population growth and the prospect of easier monetary policy in 2025. Vacancy rates remain around 1% nationally and below that in several capitals, a configuration consistent with continued rental inflation.

The paradox is stark but explainable. Supply is structurally constrained by planning and build cost inflation; approvals and commencements are well below the levels required to meet stated housing targets. Investor withdrawals reduce rental stock at precisely the wrong time. As one senior market economist recently noted in public commentary, lower rates will lift borrowing capacity before new supply can respond—pulling prices up even as investors hesitate.

Policy, regulation and the new cost stack

A PESTLE view clarifies the drivers:

• Political/legal: Ongoing debate about changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, frequent tenancy law revisions (minimum standards, maintenance obligations, pets, eviction processes), and state land tax recalibrations have increased perceived rule volatility.
• Economic: Higher interest costs, insurance premiums, strata levies and compliance outlays have lifted the carry cost. For leveraged investors, the breakeven rent has moved materially.
• Social: Population growth and household formation are colliding with tight vacancy rates. Political pressure to protect tenants has increased, adding policy asymmetry to the risk calculus.
• Technological/operational: Digital compliance, energy‑efficiency upgrades and property standards require capex and operational sophistication that advantage institutional managers.

Layer in credit settings—APRA’s 3 percentage point serviceability buffer remains a hurdle for refinancing—and you get a higher effective hurdle rate for small landlords. Many are unwilling or unable to bridge that gap.

Competitive dynamics: who wins the retreat?

As private investors step back, competition intensifies elsewhere:

• Lenders: Banks are vying for high‑quality borrowers with sharper fixed‑rate pricing and targeted investor packages. Non‑banks and specialist lenders are courting professional landlords with interest‑only terms and portfolio facilities. For brokers, the advisory opportunity is shifting from pure rate to capital structure and cash flow optimisation.
• Institutional capital: Build‑to‑rent (BTR) is scaling. Super funds, global managers and local developers are committing to multi‑asset pipelines. While BTR remains a small slice of total stock, its professionalised operations, longer leases and amenity‑led offering make it attractive for tenants and capital alike—particularly if policy support (e.g., land tax or planning incentives) endures.
• Developers and REITs: Those able to forward‑fund with institutional equity or government‑backed programs can keep shovels in the ground despite higher debt costs. Mid‑tier developers reliant on pre‑sales face tougher absorption and funding tests.

The strategic read: scale, access to low‑cost capital, and regulatory fluency are now durable advantages.

Operational reality: playbooks that work now

For business leaders, the “how” matters as much as the “why”.

• Landlords and asset managers: Stress‑test portfolios at higher vacancy and capex assumptions; explore debt mix optimisation (split loans, targeted fixed‑rate tenors, interest‑only with principal sweeps) and active rent‑roll management. Consider professional management to lift net operating income via cost control and amenity upgrades.
• Lenders and brokers: Segment investor cohorts by risk and intent (accumulators, consolidators, retirees). Design retention offers around cash‑flow relief and refinancing friction (serviceability workarounds within prudential guardrails). Product innovation around green retrofits and value‑add capex can lock in higher‑quality collateral.
• Developers: Hedge build‑cost inflation pre‑tender; pursue BTR or mixed‑tenure models to diversify exit risk. Partner early with councils on planning to secure density bonuses and faster approvals.
• Corporate employers: Housing affordability is now a talent variable. Consider housing partnerships or location strategy to protect workforce availability in tight rental corridors.

Market signals: what’s noisy, what’s real

Not all markets move together. Agents report intense competition for rental stock and rising prices in Perth and Adelaide, while parts of Hobart and regional pockets show higher listings and softer absorption. These mixed signals are typical late‑cycle features: scarcity premiums in high‑growth nodes, rebalancing where prior investor activity was elevated. For strategy, that means tightening geographic focus and underwriting assumptions suburb‑by‑suburb, not city‑by‑city.

Policy choices that could reset confidence

Predictability is the currency of long‑term capital. Governments looking to stabilise rental supply can reduce the policy risk premium without large fiscal outlays:

• Set a multi‑year tax and tenancy roadmap that commits to no retrospective changes and staged transitions for any reform to negative gearing, CGT or land tax.
• Targeted incentives such as accelerated depreciation for energy upgrades, or land tax credits for newly created rental stock, can nudge supply where it’s most needed.
• Planning acceleration through code‑assessed medium‑density and build‑to‑rent overlays can lift approvals and shorten delivery timelines.

Absent a clearer policy line‑of‑sight, the investor base will remain shallow and rents will bear the brunt.

Outlook: scenarios for the next 12–24 months

Base case: Inflation cools gradually; the RBA signals some easing in 2025. Borrowing capacity improves ahead of new supply, keeping price growth positive in most capitals. With vacancies tight, advertised rents rise in mid‑single digits nationally, higher in the tightest markets.

Upside: A credible multi‑year reform roadmap and selective incentives coax investors back; approvals lift, BTR accelerates, and rent growth moderates by late 2025.

Downside: Sticky inflation delays rate cuts; construction insolvencies persist; more small landlords exit on cash‑flow strain. Rent inflation stays elevated and affordability deteriorates, amplifying political and wage‑pressure risks.

The strategic takeaway: treat policy risk as a cost of capital input, not a headline. Organisations that price it correctly—and design for it—will out‑execute in a market where scarcity and volatility are now features, not bugs.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 21:37:41" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 19:27:50" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 23:20:21" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(458) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-kindelmedia-7579042_bhlfsz","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757359619\/pexels-kindelmedia-7579042_bhlfsz.jpg","image_intro_alt":"Why investors are fleeing and renters are scrambling in Australia's housing maze","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Kindel Media","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(804) "Price in a policy risk premium: higher holding and compliance costs have structurally lifted required returns for small landlords and shifted advantage to scale players., Reposition for scarcity: build-to-rent, mixed-tenure projects, and professional asset management can capture demand as private rental stock contracts., Use granular underwriting: market conditions diverge sharply by suburb; focus on vacancy, listings and build pipeline rather than city-wide averages., Design products for cash-flow resilience: lenders and brokers should prioritise structures that manage serviceability friction and fund value-add capex., Watch the policy and rate path: a multi-year, predictable reform roadmap plus easing in 2025 could stabilise investor confidence; absent that, expect persistent rent inflation." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(104) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(8129) ["ordering"]=> int(20) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#973 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8479 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 23:20:21" ["slug"]=> string(105) "18828:investor-exodus-meets-rental-scarcity-the-policy-risk-premium-now-driving-australias-housing-market" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9010 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(755) "

Australia’s rental market is tightening even as individual landlords sell down. New data points to a multi‑year investor retreat tied to higher holding costs and regulatory uncertainty, while prices continue to drift up on scarce supply. The result is a policy-driven risk premium that is reshaping how capital flows into housing. Early movers—from lenders to institutional build‑to‑rent operators—are repositioning to capture the gap left by traditional investors.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9038 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9044 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9040 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9039 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9037 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9025 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9046 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8924 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9045 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(122) "/invest-money/property/investor-exodus-meets-rental-scarcity-the-policy-risk-premium-now-driving-australias-housing-market" ["image"]=> string(118) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757359619/pexels-kindelmedia-7579042_bhlfsz.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(80) "Why investors are fleeing and renters are scrambling in Australia's housing maze" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#8513 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18823) ["title"]=> string(96) "Australia's 5% deposit guarantee: Unlocking gains while balancing risks in the market share race" ["alias"]=> string(100) "case-study-australias-5-deposit-guarantee-access-gains-risk-trade-offs-and-the-race-for-market-share" ["introtext"]=> string(475) "

Can a bigger government guarantee fix housing access without fuelling prices? Australia is about to find out. The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit pathway aims to help 70,000 buyers, remove income caps, and accelerate take‑up by bringing the start date forward to October 2025. This case study unpacks the strategic implications for lenders, developers, insurers and policymakers—what will shift, who gains, and where the risks sit.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8697) "

A market straining under access and supply pressure

First-home buyer demand has been resilient despite higher rates. In 2024, first-home buyer (FHB) loans reached an estimated 125,220 nationally, up 5.9% year on year, with Victoria leading at roughly an 11% lift. Affordability remains stretched, saving horizons are long, and construction pipelines are uneven. In that environment, the Commonwealth has doubled down on demand-side assistance by expanding the First Home Guarantee (FHG)—the 5% deposit pathway administered by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC). The move mirrors a broader global pattern: when affordability bites, governments step in with credit guarantees, equity loans or duty relief.

The policy trade-off is well rehearsed. Guarantees can reduce deposit hurdles and cut lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI) costs, speeding up access. But under persistent supply constraints, more purchasing power risks lifting prices and increasing leverage at the entry point. That tension sits at the heart of Australia’s latest redesign.

A larger, earlier, looser guarantee

The expansion makes four material shifts:

• Scale: Target capacity of up to 70,000 places, signalling a materially larger intake pipeline for lenders and brokers.
• Deposit: Borrowers can purchase with a 5% deposit without paying LMI, with the Commonwealth acting as guarantor to the lender for the portion above 80% loan‑to‑value ratio (LVR) and up to 95% LVR.
• Eligibility: Removal of income caps and higher property price thresholds broaden the addressable market.
• Timing: Brought forward to commence in October 2025, pulling forward demand and forcing operational readiness across the lending ecosystem.

Industry reactions diverge. Property bodies welcome expanded access, while economists warn of price impacts if supply fails to keep pace. Treasury’s own modelling points to a modest national price effect—around 0.5% over six years—while independent research from Lateral Economics suggests the scheme could add 20,600–39,100 buyers annually, roughly 3.8%–7.1% of home sales, intensifying competition at the lower price points.

How the guarantee changes lender economics and operations

Credit and capital: High-LVR lending typically attracts higher capital charges under prudential standards. The government guarantee is a credit enhancement, changing expected loss dynamics relative to uninsured high-LVR loans. Banks will still manage concentration risk by segment, geography and borrower profile, but the guarantee can improve risk-adjusted return on equity (ROE) if priced correctly.

Pricing and product design: Expect sharper, risk-based mortgage pricing with fewer LMI-linked price tiers. Lenders that can granularly price by LVR bands, postcode risk and borrower resilience (e.g., dual-income, non-discretionary sectors) will capture share. Removing income caps widens the credit spectrum, increasing the importance of affordability buffers and income variability testing.

Distribution: Brokers originate the majority of Australian mortgages; aggregator channels will be crucial. Early movers with streamlined NHFIC workflows, instant eligibility checks and pre-approval SLAs measured in hours (not days) will outcompete. Integrating open banking for deposit verification and living-expense analytics will reduce abandonment and fraud risk.

Operations and risk: The operational shift is non-trivial—loan origination systems must ingest guarantee eligibility flags, automate certificate capture, and adjust downstream collections and hardship pathways given the sovereign guarantee structure. Stress testing needs to focus on negative equity risk bands (90%–95% LVR) under price shocks and regional downturns.

Adjacent industries: LMI providers face tighter volumes in the scheme segment as premiums are effectively displaced. Developers may see stronger inquiry for entry-level stock; the risk is price uplift without a commensurate rise in commencements. Proptechs enabling pre-qualification and valuation intelligence can become critical nodes in the new flow.

What the numbers and models imply

With commencement slated for October 2025, hard outcomes are ahead. Yet modelled and market-proxy data provide directional insight.

• Demand uplift: Lateral Economics projects an additional 20,600–39,100 buyers per year (3.8%–7.1% of sales). For lenders, even a mid-range uplift could justify dedicated guarantee teams and marketing budgets aimed at the 5% deposit cohort.
• Price effects: Treasury modelling implies a 0.5% national price increase spread over six years. Independent economists suggest the impact could be larger in constrained sub-markets—particularly if interest rates ease through 2025–26—concentrating competitive bidding in entry-level stock.
• Access impact: The policy aims to deliver up to 70,000 additional homeowners. In a market that recorded around 125,220 FHB loans in 2024, that is material throughput, with the largest relative gains likely in states where price caps align to median entry stock.
• Lender share shifts: Banks with early certification readiness, broker education and rapid pre-approvals could gain 100–200 bps of share in the FHB segment within the first year, based on typical share movements observed in prior policy windows.
• Downside risk: High-LVR borrowers are more exposed to valuation volatility. In a downturn, negative equity combined with income shocks elevates arrears risk—though the guarantee reduces lender loss severity relative to uninsured equivalents.

What global schemes teach

United Kingdom: Help to Buy boosted transactions and supported developers, but contributed to price uplift in new-build segments and introduced cliff-edge effects when eligibility changed.

New Zealand: First Home Loan guarantees broadened access but faced regional price pressures, underscoring the need to coordinate demand-side support with supply measures, planning reform and delivery capacity.

The through-line: guarantees work best when synced with supply acceleration, stable eligibility settings, and clear exit pathways for borrowers to refinance into lower LVR brackets.

Playbook for business leaders

For lenders: Build a dedicated guarantee channel with three pillars—(1) eligibility tech and broker tooling, (2) risk-based pricing at high LVRs with robust serviceability floors, and (3) early-warning systems for post-settlement stress. Tie every guaranteed loan to a two-year refinance plan targeting sub‑80% LVR via offset discipline and principal curtailment.

For developers and builders: Recalibrate product mix toward compact, energy‑efficient entry stock in suburbs where scheme price caps intersect with buyer demand. Use shared-data partnerships with lenders to forecast pipeline absorption and avoid over-concentration risk.

For insurers: LMI portfolios will compress in the guarantee cohort—pivot to value-add services (hardship analytics, recoveries optimisation) for lenders and deepen coverage in non-scheme, investor, and self‑employed niches.

For policymakers: Anchor demand-side support to supply-side acceleration—fast-track approvals, enable medium-density uplift near transport, and stabilise scheme settings to reduce policy whiplash. Transparently report arrears, negative equity incidence, and regional price effects to maintain credibility and calibrate risk exposure for taxpayers.

For proptechs and data providers: Build eligibility and valuation APIs tailored to the guarantee rules, offer real-time scheme capacity indicators, and integrate affordability nudges that help borrowers manage buffers after settlement.

Strategic bottom line: The expanded 5% deposit pathway will reshape competition at the entry level of the market. Early operational excellence—not marketing noise—will determine who wins share. The guarantee lowers the deposit barrier; it does not remove the cycle. Businesses that couple access with prudence will be the durable winners.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-07 21:37:21" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 19:34:49" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-07 23:33:06" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(469) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-kampus-8730048_aagrbc","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757359969\/pexels-kampus-8730048_aagrbc.jpg","image_intro_alt":"Australia's 5% deposit guarantee: Unlocking gains while balancing risks in the market share race","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Kampus Production","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(873) "Operational readiness for the 5% deposit guarantee—eligibility tech, broker tooling, and rapid SLAs—will be the decisive source of lender market share gains in 2025–26., Risk-based pricing and post-settlement refinance strategies can convert high-LVR guarantees into strong risk-adjusted ROE without relying on LMI., Modelled demand uplift of 20, 600–39, 100 buyers annually (3.8%–7.1% of sales) will intensify competition in entry-level stock and may lift prices beyond Treasury’s 0.5% baseline in constrained areas., Developers should pivot product mix toward price-cap sweet spots and coordinate with lenders on pipeline absorption to avoid localised overheating., Long-term success hinges on pairing demand-side guarantees with supply acceleration; monitor arrears, negative equity bands, and regional price signals to recalibrate policy and risk appetites." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(126) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(8697) ["ordering"]=> int(29) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#974 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8472 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-07 23:33:06" ["slug"]=> string(106) "18823:case-study-australias-5-deposit-guarantee-access-gains-risk-trade-offs-and-the-race-for-market-share" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9021 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(726) "

Can a bigger government guarantee fix housing access without fuelling prices? Australia is about to find out. The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit pathway aims to help 70,000 buyers, remove income caps, and accelerate take‑up by bringing the start date forward to October 2025. This case study unpacks the strategic implications for lenders, developers, insurers and policymakers—what will shift, who gains, and where the risks sit.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9049 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9055 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9051 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9050 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9048 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9036 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9057 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8942 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9056 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(123) "/invest-money/property/case-study-australias-5-deposit-guarantee-access-gains-risk-trade-offs-and-the-race-for-market-share" ["image"]=> string(113) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757359969/pexels-kampus-8730048_aagrbc.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(96) "Australia's 5% deposit guarantee: Unlocking gains while balancing risks in the market share race" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8512 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18833) ["title"]=> string(73) "Australia's bold move the 5% deposit scheme shaking up the housing market" ["alias"]=> string(114) "australias-5-deposit-bet-how-the-fast-tracked-first-home-guarantee-will-ripple-through-lending-prices-and-strategy" ["introtext"]=> string(510) "

Can a government guarantee replace lenders mortgage insurance without inflating prices or risk? Canberra’s accelerated 5% deposit scheme is a bold demand-side nudge in a supply‑constrained market. Early modelling points to more buyers and higher prices, while lenders face fresh underwriting and capital-management questions. This case study dissects the decision, the execution reality, and the strategic playbook for banks, developers and corporates exposed to housing cycles.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(7777) "

A demand accelerator in a supply bottleneck

Australia’s housing affordability problem is a decade in the making, but the catalyst now is policy speed. The Federal Government has brought forward an expanded First Home Guarantee (FHG) to 1 October 2025, allowing eligible buyers to enter with a 5% deposit while avoiding lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) via a government guarantee. It lands as first-home buyer (FHB) activity ticks up: ABS data show 125,220 FHB loans in 2024, up 5.9% year-on-year, roughly in line with broader owner-occupier growth. The policy aims to compress the deposit hurdle — the longest pole in the affordability tent — in a market where supply timelines and planning reform lag.

The strategic tension is obvious. Demand-side support works quickly; supply-side fixes take years. That creates a price sensitivity risk in high-demand corridors, especially Sydney and Brisbane, where investor activity and constrained new dwelling completion intersect.

Turbocharging access — and its trade-offs

The decision architecture is clear: replace expensive LMI with a Commonwealth guarantee up to the 15% gap above the borrower’s 5% deposit. The scheme’s expansion has been positioned to help up to 70,000 buyers and, according to publicly cited analysis, includes broadened eligibility from 1 October 2025, with higher property price thresholds in some areas. The political economy is compelling — faster entry, reduced upfront costs — but the economic transmission is two-sided.

Independent modelling by Lateral Economics estimates the scheme could lift annual demand by 20,600 to 39,100 buyers (about 3.8% to 7.1% of annual sales) and add 3.5% to 6.6% to national prices in 2026 and beyond. Their analysis also flags that roughly 6,500 lower-income FHBs could be outbid in year one. Other economists argue the price effect may be far smaller, on the order of 0.5% over six years, underscoring genuine uncertainty around behavioural responses and supply elasticity.

The lender’s-eye view and operational realities

Under the hood, the FHG changes the mortgage risk stack more than it changes borrower risk. With a 5% deposit, the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) sits near 95%. In the legacy model, LMI covered lenders’ loss-given-default (LGD) for high-LVR loans. Under the guarantee model, Housing Australia assumes part of that LGD exposure. For banks, this has three operational implications:

• Credit policy and serviceability: APRA’s minimum 3 percentage point serviceability buffer remains intact, but lenders will revisit scorecards for high-LVR cohorts where the guarantee reduces tail losses. Expect tighter debt-to-income gating in postcodes with higher price volatility and strata defect risk.
• Capital and pricing: For standardised banks, risk weights on high-LVR mortgages are sensitive to credit protection. The guarantee can mitigate LGD, supporting risk-weighted asset efficiency. That, in turn, influences pricing; some lenders may pass through sharper rates than comparable LMI-backed loans to win share.
• Process and partnerships: The absence of LMI underwriting removes a friction point and potentially shortens time-to-approval. But lenders will need robust operational links to Housing Australia’s guarantee portal, monitoring obligations, and early hardship workflows, given thinner borrower equity buffers.

For mortgage brokers, the proposition is simple: a cleaner conversion path for deposit-constrained clients. For developers and builders, an expanded FHB pool improves off-the-plan pre-sales probability — critical for debt drawdowns — but concentrates exposure to entry-level stock, where build cost inflation and defect risk have been acute.

What the numbers suggest

Because the rollout accelerates to October 2025, hard outcomes are limited. Yet three quant signals stand out:

• Uptake capacity: Government program capacity targets up to 70,000 places. If Lateral Economics’ demand uplift (20,600–39,100 buyers) lands, utilisation will be high, especially in NSW and QLD.
• Price effects: The modelled national price uplift (3.5%–6.6%) would more than offset the deposit hurdle for many buyers but pushes marginal purchasers to the sidelines. A competing view suggests a muted 0.5% increase over six years, implying the effect may be diffused by supply responses and macro settings.
• Risk geometry: At 95% LVR, a 5% price decline places new entrants into negative equity. That’s a balance-sheet optic lenders will manage via post-settlement monitoring and granular postcode limits. On the upside, avoiding LMI saves borrowers often $10,000–$25,000 on typical loans in major cities, accelerating time to purchase by years for some households.

Market behaviour already hints at competition intensifying in entry-level segments when finance access expands. If rates drift lower into 2026, the scheme’s demand impulse will be magnified.

Industry perspectives and global context

Property industry bodies welcome the deposit relief and broader eligibility, seeing faster pathways to ownership and healthier pre-sales. Risk specialists are more circumspect, pointing to concentration risk in high-density, recently completed stock and the potential for localised overshoot. Economists remain split: demand stimulus in a supply-constrained market typically capitalises into prices; the live question is magnitude and duration.

Internationally, low-deposit, government-supported programs provide cautionary guidance. The UK’s low-deposit guarantees and equity loans pulled forward demand, boosted developer pre-sales and, at times, coincided with price inflation around eligible stock. Canada’s variants balanced guarantees with conservative serviceability tests. The consistent lesson: program design and prudent underwriting guard against adverse selection and post-program cliffs.

Strategy playbook for decision‑makers

For banks and non-banks: Calibrate pricing to reflect LGD relief from the guarantee, not just headline LVR. Use geospatial risk scoring to avoid thin-equity clustering in volatile postcodes. Invest in early-intervention hardship channels — negative-equity cases rise faster in downturns when starting at 95% LVR.

For developers and builders: Align launch calendars to the October 2025 demand window. Prioritise product at price points that meet scheme thresholds and accelerate pre-sale velocity to stabilise project finance. Quality assurance matters — defect risk spreads quickly through broker networks and dampens FHB demand.

For corporate strategists and retailers: Home formation drives durable goods demand. Expect uplift in entry-level furnishings, whitegoods and broadband connections in eligible corridors. Secure inventory and channel partnerships ahead of the uptake curve.

For policymakers: Pair the FHG with supply levers — planning streamlining, social/affordable quotas that unlock private yields, and build-to-rent incentives. Monitor distributional effects; guard against lower-income displacement via targeted caps or regional allocations if needed.

For investors: Expect earnings sensitivities in banks with outsized mortgage books, building materials with entry-level exposure, and listed developers reliant on apartment pre-sales. Watch auction clearance and first-home lending flows as leading indicators.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-04 21:38:03" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 19:18:39" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-07 23:16:42" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(460) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-freestockpro-12955837_apucs4","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757358986\/pexels-freestockpro-12955837_apucs4.jpg","image_intro_alt":"Australia's bold move the 5% deposit scheme shaking up the housing market","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Atlantic Ambience","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(784) "Demand-side deposit relief works quickly but risks capitalising into prices; align lending, pricing, and risk controls to manage a higher 95% LVR mix., Early-moving lenders can gain share by using the government guarantee to sharpen rates versus LMI-backed loans while using granular postcode risk filters., Modelled impacts range from a 3.5%–6.6% national price uplift to a muted 0.5% over six years; plan for regional divergence and segment-specific heat., Execution hinges on tightened serviceability, robust hardship pathways, and integration with Housing Australia’s guarantee processes to manage thin-equity risk., The strategic arc favours firms positioned for an October 2025 demand bump; pairing demand stimulus with supply acceleration will determine long-run stability." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(109) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(7777) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8480 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8466 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-07 23:16:42" ["slug"]=> string(120) "18833:australias-5-deposit-bet-how-the-fast-tracked-first-home-guarantee-will-ripple-through-lending-prices-and-strategy" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9032 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(775) "

Can a government guarantee replace lenders mortgage insurance without inflating prices or risk? Canberra’s accelerated 5% deposit scheme is a bold demand-side nudge in a supply‑constrained market. Early modelling points to more buyers and higher prices, while lenders face fresh underwriting and capital-management questions. This case study dissects the decision, the execution reality, and the strategic playbook for banks, developers and corporates exposed to housing cycles.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9060 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9066 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9062 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9061 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9059 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9047 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9068 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8964 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9067 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(137) "/invest-money/property/australias-5-deposit-bet-how-the-fast-tracked-first-home-guarantee-will-ripple-through-lending-prices-and-strategy" ["image"]=> string(120) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757358986/pexels-freestockpro-12955837_apucs4.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(73) "Australia's bold move the 5% deposit scheme shaking up the housing market" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8511 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18816) ["title"]=> string(81) "When rates drop but stress sticks: exploring Australia's mortgage arrears dilemma" ["alias"]=> string(89) "when-rates-fall-but-stress-lingers-a-case-study-of-australias-mortgage-arrears-inflection" ["introtext"]=> string(477) "

Headline numbers suggest arrears ease as rates come down. The reality in Australia is messier: broad measures dipped into mid‑2025, yet severe delinquencies and non‑bank portfolios remain under pressure. This case study dissects the strategic choices lenders made, what worked operationally, and how early adopters are turning credit stress into competitive advantage. The punchline for business leaders: relief is real, but so is the long tail.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(8339) "

Format: Case Study

Context: A relief rally with warning lights still flashing

After a rapid rate hiking cycle, Australia entered a tentative easing phase. Headline delinquency metrics began to improve: industry reporting indicates national mortgage arrears around 0.89% in the June quarter of 2025, down from roughly 0.97% earlier in the year. Yet the simple narrative that “lower rates equal fewer arrears” misses key dynamics on the ground.

Three forces complicate the picture. First, households are exiting ultra‑low fixed loans onto materially higher variable rates; the so‑called fixed‑rate cliff continues to roll through 2024–2025 cohorts. Second, living‑cost inflation has re‑priced essentials, so disposable income relief from modest rate cuts is partially absorbed by groceries, energy and insurance. Third, labour market conditions—while far from crisis—have softened at the margins, adding income volatility for casual and self‑employed borrowers.

Arrears behave non‑linearly under these conditions. Early‑stage delinquencies (30–59 days past due) tend to stabilise first when rates fall. Severe arrears (90+ days), which embed deeper income shocks and accumulated fees, cure more slowly and can keep rising even as the headline metric improves. Ratings agencies and prudential data have echoed this divergence across lender types: major banks with strong loss‑mitigation capabilities stabilised faster than non‑banks exposed to riskier segments and funding cost pass‑through.

Decision: The industry’s pivot from blunt defence to targeted relief

Through late 2024 and into 2025, the decision set for lenders and brokers shifted from protection to precision:

• Rebalance risk appetite: tighten on high‑DTI new lending while easing, selectively, for strong back‑book customers to retain relationships and reduce churn.
• Refi triage over price wars: prioritise refinances that materially reduce payment burdens (term extensions, partial principal holidays) rather than blanket cashback campaigns that erode margins.
• Serviceability policy recalibration: maintain prudent buffers but offer verified expense overrides for low‑volatility income profiles; consider bespoke pathways for near‑prime borrowers with strong collateral.
• Collections to care: reframe hardship from a collections cost centre to a retention strategy, with measurable targets for cure rates and NPS.

Regulatory settings remained appropriately cautious: buffers and responsible lending obligations acted as guardrails. The debate abroad—such as UK discussions on easing stress tests—provided context but not a blueprint; Australia’s high household debt warranted a “carefully measured” approach to balance access and stability.

Implementation: What moved the needle operationally

The lenders showing the fastest normalisation executed five pragmatic plays.

• Early‑warning analytics: portfolio “segment of one” models that flag payment risk using transaction data (utilities, rent, BNPL signals), not just bureau delinquencies. Trigger‑based outreach began 30–45 days before first missed payments.
• Friction‑light hardship pathways: self‑service portals offering short, time‑boxed arrangements (60–120 days), automated interest‑only switches, and dynamic payment plans. These reduced call centre load and cut decision times from weeks to days.
• Precision pricing and retention: micro‑repricing for at‑risk but valuable customers, combined with targeted term extensions (e.g., 25 to 30 years) to deliver 8–12% payment relief without permanently impairing yield.
• Broker enablement: real‑time hardship eligibility and refinance feasibility embedded in broker CRMs, reducing attrition and improving first‑time‑right submissions.
• Funding strategy alignment: non‑banks with warehouse and RMBS facilities focused on seasoning and transparency, pre‑positioning for tighter securitisation spreads as arrears stabilised.

Results: Relief at the headline, pressure in the tail

The aggregate picture into mid‑2025 is clearer than the original headlines imply.

• Headline arrears improved: national arrears near 0.89% in the June quarter of 2025 versus roughly 0.97% earlier—consistent with lower effective rates and targeted hardship support.
• Severity divergence persisted: 30–59 day buckets stabilised first; 90+ day arrears remained elevated relative to pre‑hike baselines, reflecting deeper affordability issues and slower cures.
• Lender dispersion widened: majors outperformed on cures and loss containment; non‑banks and specialist lenders faced higher arrears due to borrower mix and funding cost pass‑through.
• Provisioning discipline held: banks maintained prudent overlays rather than aggressive write‑backs, recognising the long tail risk and macro uncertainty.

Cross‑domain policy evidence adds texture. Wisconsin’s child‑support reform, which reduced interest on arrears, suggests that lowering penalty rates can slow arrears growth and lift payment compliance—an instructive analogue for how pricing relief and simpler repayment structures can change borrower behaviour. While not a mortgage market, the behavioural direction is consistent with Australia’s mid‑2025 experience: reduce friction, improve cures.

Lessons: What business leaders can bank on

Five lessons stand out for lenders, fintechs and investors.

• Arrears are a lagging indicator: expect a multi‑quarter lag between rate cuts and sustained improvements in 90+ day buckets. Plan capital, staffing and funding accordingly.
• Precision beats generosity: targeted relief to borrowers with verifiable capacity and strong collateral creates better risk‑adjusted outcomes than broad price cuts.
• Speed matters: digitised hardship and pre‑delinquency outreach reduce cure times and roll rates. The payoff shows up in lower credit losses and higher customer lifetime value.
• Funding and credit are joined at the hip: lenders that align securitisation strategies with transparent arrears reporting and seasoned pools can recapture spread as markets stabilise.
• Don’t mistake direction for destination: a few quarters of improvement do not erase household leverage risks. Maintain overlays and invest in early‑warning infrastructure.

Technical deep dive: How to read the signals

Arrears metrics can mislead if read in isolation. Three technical checks improve decision quality:

• Vintage analysis: track delinquency curves by origination cohort; late‑cycle vintages typically carry higher risk, and stabilisation should be assessed cohort‑by‑cohort, not just portfolio‑wide.
• Bucket migration: monitor transitions (current to 30+, 30+ to 60+, 60+ to 90+) rather than static levels. A falling 30+ paired with a rising 90+ signals backlog, not resolution.
• Cure rate quality: distinguish cures via genuine repayment normalisation from structural fixes like term extensions or interest‑only periods. Both are valid, but they have different implications for lifetime losses and capital.

Future outlook: Strategy under a lower‑for‑longer, volatile‑for‑longer regime

Global rate paths will remain choppy. Australia’s household debt levels amplify sensitivity to even small rate moves, making operational agility a durable competitive edge. Expect three shifts: more granular pricing of risk at acquisition, embedded hardship tooling in mainstream banking apps, and securitisation structures that reward transparent arrears reporting. Early adopters that treat hardship as a loyalty engine—and invest in data to intervene before distress hardens—will capture share as the cycle normalises.

The takeaway for boards and executive teams is straightforward: celebrate the headline improvement, but fund for the long tail. Victory here is not avoiding arrears; it’s engineering faster, cheaper cures than your competitors.

" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["catid"]=> int(293) ["created"]=> string(19) "2025-09-04 21:20:36" ["created_by"]=> int(1891) ["created_by_alias"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["modified"]=> string(19) "2025-09-08 18:29:37" ["modified_by"]=> int(2421) ["publish_up"]=> string(19) "2025-09-04 23:28:52" ["publish_down"]=> NULL ["images"]=> string(464) "{"public_id_cloudinary":"pexels-mikhail-nilov-7731373_lomffc","image_intro":"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd\/image\/upload\/v1757356111\/pexels-mikhail-nilov-7731373_lomffc.jpg","image_intro_alt":"When rates drop but stress sticks: exploring Australia's mortgage arrears dilemma","float_intro":"","image_intro_caption":"Photo by Mikhail Nilov","image_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_alt":"","float_fulltext":"","image_fulltext_caption":""}" ["urls"]=> string(112) "{"urla":"","urlatext":"","targeta":"","urlb":"","urlbtext":"","targetb":"","urlc":"","urlctext":"","targetc":""}" ["attribs"]=> string(604) "{"article_layout":"","show_title":"","link_titles":"","show_tags":"","show_intro":"","info_block_position":"","info_block_show_title":"","show_category":"","link_category":"","show_parent_category":"","link_parent_category":"","show_author":"","link_author":"","show_create_date":"","show_modify_date":"","show_publish_date":"","show_item_navigation":"","show_hits":"","show_noauth":"","urls_position":"","alternative_readmore":"","article_page_title":"","show_publishing_options":"","show_article_options":"","show_urls_images_backend":"","show_urls_images_frontend":"","readingDiff":"3","comments":"1"}" ["metadata"]=> string(52) "{"robots":"","author":"","rights":"","metatitle":""}" ["metakey"]=> string(748) "Treat arrears improvement as a partial win: 30–59 day buckets respond first to lower rates, but 90+ day delinquencies require sustained operational focus., Build competitive advantage in hardship: digitised, pre‑emptive outreach and targeted relief reduce losses and increase retention versus blanket price cuts., Align funding with credit transparency: seasoned pools and granular arrears reporting support tighter RMBS spreads as conditions stabilise., Adopt technical discipline: track bucket migration, cohort vintages and cure quality to avoid false positives from headline arrears metrics., Plan for a long tail: maintain provisioning overlays and invest in early‑warning analytics to navigate a lower‑but‑volatile rate environment." ["metadesc"]=> string(0) "" ["access"]=> int(1) ["hits"]=> int(135) ["featured"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["readmore"]=> int(8339) ["ordering"]=> int(36) ["featured_up"]=> NULL ["featured_down"]=> NULL ["state"]=> int(1) ["category_title"]=> string(8) "Property" ["category_route"]=> string(21) "invest-money/property" ["category_access"]=> int(1) ["category_alias"]=> string(8) "property" ["category_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["published"]=> int(1) ["parents_published"]=> int(1) ["lft"]=> int(52) ["author"]=> string(8) "Newsdesk" ["author_email"]=> string(33) "[email protected]" ["modified_by_name"]=> string(17) "Nicole Comendador" ["parent_title"]=> string(6) "Invest" ["parent_id"]=> int(284) ["parent_route"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_alias"]=> string(12) "invest-money" ["parent_language"]=> string(1) "*" ["alternative_readmore"]=> NULL ["layout"]=> NULL ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8473 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8465 (94) { ["article_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_titles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_intro"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["info_block_show_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_category"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["link_parent_category"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_associations"]=> string(1) "0" ["flags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["link_author"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_create_date"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_modify_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_publish_date"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_item_navigation"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_vote"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_readmore_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["readmore_limit"]=> string(3) "100" ["show_tags"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_icons"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_print_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_email_icon"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["record_hits"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_noauth"]=> string(1) "0" ["urls_position"]=> string(1) "0" ["captcha"]=> string(0) "" ["show_publishing_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_article_options"]=> string(1) "1" ["save_history"]=> string(1) "1" ["history_limit"]=> int(10) ["show_urls_images_frontend"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_urls_images_backend"]=> string(1) "1" ["targeta"]=> int(0) ["targetb"]=> int(0) ["targetc"]=> int(0) ["float_intro"]=> string(4) "left" ["float_fulltext"]=> string(5) "right" ["category_layout"]=> string(14) "momentum:newne" ["show_category_heading_title_text"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_category_title"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_description"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_description_image"]=> string(1) "0" ["maxLevel"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_no_articles"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_subcat_desc"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_cat_tags"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_base_description"]=> string(1) "1" ["maxLevelcat"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_empty_categories_cat"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcat_desc_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_cat_num_articles_cat"]=> string(1) "1" ["num_leading_articles"]=> string(2) "14" ["num_intro_articles"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_columns"]=> string(1) "0" ["num_links"]=> string(1) "0" ["multi_column_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_subcategory_content"]=> string(2) "-1" ["show_pagination_limit"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter_field"]=> string(4) "hide" ["show_headings"]=> string(1) "1" ["list_show_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["date_format"]=> string(0) "" ["list_show_hits"]=> string(1) "0" ["list_show_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["orderby_pri"]=> string(4) "none" ["orderby_sec"]=> string(5) "rdate" ["order_date"]=> string(9) "published" ["show_pagination"]=> string(1) "2" ["show_pagination_results"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_featured"]=> string(4) "show" ["show_feed_link"]=> string(1) "1" ["feed_summary"]=> string(1) "0" ["feed_show_readmore"]=> string(1) "0" ["sef_advanced"]=> int(1) ["sef_ids"]=> int(1) ["custom_fields_enable"]=> string(1) "1" ["show_page_heading"]=> NULL ["layout_type"]=> string(4) "blog" ["menu_text"]=> int(1) ["menu_show"]=> int(1) ["page_title"]=> string(71) "Invest Money - Strategies and Tools for your Investment Goals | nestegg" ["menu-meta_description"]=> string(160) "Let us help you decide how you want to invest your money on. Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-04 23:28:52" ["slug"]=> string(95) "18816:when-rates-fall-but-stress-lingers-a-case-study-of-australias-mortgage-arrears-inflection" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9043 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

" ["afterDisplayContent"]=> string(0) "" } ["text"]=> string(717) "

Headline numbers suggest arrears ease as rates come down. The reality in Australia is messier: broad measures dipped into mid‑2025, yet severe delinquencies and non‑bank portfolios remain under pressure. This case study dissects the strategic choices lenders made, what worked operationally, and how early adopters are turning credit stress into competitive advantage. The punchline for business leaders: relief is real, but so is the long tail.

Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#9071 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8716 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8532 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8534 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8535 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8533 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8715 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8530 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(7) "autotag" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "0" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(1) "1" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(1) ["label"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["description"]=> string(51) "Automatic tagging of article base on title keywords" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(17) "Celeste Fernandez" ["group_title"]=> string(4) "Tags" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["rawvalue"]=> string(1) "1" } [7]=> object(stdClass)#9077 (33) { ["id"]=> int(7) ["title"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["name"]=> string(3) "url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-09 01:32:54" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8714 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8536 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8531 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8526 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "First article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [8]=> object(stdClass)#9073 (33) { ["id"]=> int(8) ["title"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["name"]=> string(18) "second-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:04" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8529 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8701 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8527 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8696 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(18) "Second article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [9]=> object(stdClass)#9072 (33) { ["id"]=> int(9) ["title"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["name"]=> string(17) "third-article-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-07-08 05:42:42" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(0) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8702 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8692 (1) { ["relative"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8695 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8700 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(3) "url" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(3) ["label"]=> string(17) "Third article URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(16) "Related Articles" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#9070 (33) { ["id"]=> int(4) ["title"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["name"]=> string(9) "video-url" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-19 05:54:21" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8699 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8697 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8698 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8726 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(9) "Video URL" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [6]=> object(stdClass)#9058 (33) { ["id"]=> int(6) ["title"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["name"]=> string(31) "image-caption-video-description" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 16:29:55" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(2) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8694 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8728 (2) { ["filter"]=> string(0) "" ["maxlength"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8725 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8730 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(4) "text" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(33) "Image Caption / Video description" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#9079 (33) { ["id"]=> int(3) ["title"]=> string(6) "Status" ["name"]=> string(6) "status" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:45:26" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(3) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8727 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8735 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8733 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8732 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8734 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8729 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8737 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(6) "Status" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8975 (33) { ["id"]=> int(5) ["title"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["name"]=> string(21) "essential-information" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-25 06:10:20" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(4) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8731 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8739 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8736 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8741 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(22) " Essential information" ["description"]=> string(35) "3 points that summarize the article" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#9078 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8738 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8743 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8740 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8745 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(112) "/invest-money/property/when-rates-fall-but-stress-lingers-a-case-study-of-australias-mortgage-arrears-inflection" ["image"]=> string(120) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1757356111/pexels-mikhail-nilov-7731373_lomffc.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(81) "When rates drop but stress sticks: exploring Australia's mortgage arrears dilemma" } }