Bonds
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Dampening downside risk during a global economic downturn requires active management and informed decisions, writes Justin Tyler.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(6381) "Australia is in its first recession for 29 years, and for many investors, this is the first time they have had to navigate this investment environment and construct a defensive portfolio that can weather a bear market.
An added challenge for investors is that finding assets that can both mitigate risk and provide consistent returns is more difficult than ever.
Balanced portfolios have traditionally relied on having a mix of growth and defensive assets, which outperform at various times in the market cycle. However, in recent years the negative correlation between equity and bond prices has been stripped away, as prices often rose in tandem.
Given the current ultra-low interest rate environment, this has created a dilemma for asset allocators, who are concerned about market volatility and declining dividend yields but are having to pay increasingly high prices for low-yielding bonds. When bond yields are low, as they are today, they deliver less income and become inherently less defensive.
Market dislocation
One of the key reasons for the current high prices of many bond investments is the dislocation between global economies and markets.
In recent years we have seen a number of market-changing events that have combined to slow growth in developed economies – coronavirus, the US-China trade war, Brexit – the list is long. This has resulted in more cautious behaviour from both consumers and businesses, and low interest rates have failed to stimulate demand.
However, this risk aversion has not been reflected in asset prices and for many it is hard to reconcile the high pricing and resilience of equity and bond markets with the economic damage brought on by the pandemic.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently noted the gap between the bullish mood among investors and the huge uncertainties about the extent and speed of economic recovery.
The IMF cut its forecast for 2020 global economic growth, saying the pandemic has had a much stronger negative impact than previously thought. This highlights the increasing importance for investors of managing downside risks in their portfolios.
Historically bond duration, a feature of longer-dated bonds such as government bonds, has played a crucial role in portfolio construction and diversification, with long-dated bonds typically performing well in periods of market stress and volatility.
However, unconventional monetary easing programs across the globe have stripped away the supply of duration from US bonds markets, making sovereign bonds historically expensive and lowering yields. In fact, in many cases the returns on offer do not even match inflation and in a few countries around the world investors are now committing to receiving zero interest.
So, if equity markets are risky and traditional ‘safe-haven’ assets are not providing the security they once did, how can asset allocators best manage the risk in the current market?
An active approach
We believe long duration as a mainstay of a balanced portfolio needs a rethink. With yields so low on long-dated bonds, it simply doesn’t make sense to commit to locking up capital for a decade or more.
Instead our analysis shows there is a compelling case for asset allocators to reduce equity allocations in favour of cash and short-term corporate credit. This is particularly relevant for those seeking more reliable income without taking on significantly higher risk, which is possible.
While investors may be tempted to try to build their own portfolios of fixed income securities, the fixed income universe is enormously diverse and, in many cases, trading is done over the counter, making pricing less transparent than in equity markets. Bond investment is about avoiding losers – not picking winners – and therefore holding different types of bonds is critical.
Bond investments also come with interest rate risk and credit risk (or the risk of a borrower defaulting on its debt obligations), so simply investing in the highest-yielding assets at any given time can be a flawed approach which does not justify the risk being taken.
In our view, it is possible to create a defensive bond portfolio in these challenging markets, but this requires an active, diversified approach to assessing and managing risk.
Active managers can not only identify opportunities when markets are volatile but also have the skills and know-how to identify signs of distress that may impact a borrower’s ability to repay debt. As the economic downturn continues, the importance of understanding credit risk will only increase.
In addition, diversification as a means of risk management should be on the mind of all investors. Currently, one of the greatest challenges for bond investors is finding assets with a negative correlation to equities at a reasonable price. Therefore, it is increasingly important for investors to hedge equity exposures with a wider range of defensive asset classes.
A well-diversified bond portfolio should include a number of sectors and regions to mitigate the downside risk if something goes wrong. Investors who do diversify can earn their target yield without risking a sizable portion of their capital.
Justin Tyler is a director of Daintree Capital.
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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2020-07-14 02:24:35" ["slug"]=> string(52) "15436:bonds-in-the-new-normal-navigating-a-recession" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8598 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
Dampening downside risk during a global economic downturn requires active management and informed decisions, writes Justin Tyler.
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" ["fulltext"]=> string(2218) "During a recent Pitcher Partners function, advisory board chairman of Jamieson Coote Bonds Mark Burgess sounded a timely warning for Australian investors as the level of national debt continues to rise.
Mr Burgess said silent risks in debt markets were rising given the growth in poorer-quality assets, which he referred to as “covenant lite”, implying weakness in some of the lenders’ protections.
“The ideal time to get your asset allocation right is right now,” he said. “There are unknown risks inside some assets that some investors often don’t fully understand,” Mr Burgess said.
To mitigate against downside risk, Jamieson Coote Bonds specialist bond manager and co-founder Angus Coote told investors to purchase quality AAA-rated government bonds.
This is because exposure to high-grade sovereign bonds can outperform riskier assets such as equities and high-yield credit during periods of market stress given their negative correlation, he explained.
Mr Burgess agreed that adding high-grade bonds alongside other risky assets in diversified portfolios was a crucial measure to get the balance right between risk and return.
He said that “asset managers had benefited from positive tailwinds such as low volatility, central bank support, high corporate growth and the rise of China which had bolstered profits since the 1980s”, but he warned these days were done.
“We have got asset classes that have simply had tailwinds behind them — in private equity, infrastructure and real estate,” he said.
“Every infrastructure manager thinks they’re a genius. I stand here and tell you they’re not.”
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Investors are being urged not to fall into the trap of buying inferior-quality bonds in a low-yielding environment, despite the promises of higher returns, an industry expert has warned.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(65) "/invest-money/bonds/buyers-beware-of-silent-risks-in-bond-markets" ["image"]=> string(51) "images/article-826x550/graph-line-going-down-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(12) "bond markets" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#8124 (57) { ["id"]=> int(14796) ["title"]=> string(37) "Reasons to invest in government bonds" ["alias"]=> string(37) "reasons-to-invest-in-government-bonds" ["introtext"]=> string(156) "Many investment experts recommend adding government bonds to an investment portfolio in order to reap its benefits while limiting risks and losses.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(3067) "Government bonds are one of the safest assets that you can add to your investment portfolio, but there are other reasons why this asset class should be added to your portfolio.
Consider the top reasons below.
- Safety and stability
Government bonds, especially AGBs, are some of the safest and most stable securities you can add to your portfolio – to date, the Australian government has never defaulted on its bonds.
AGBs are investment grade – and so are many international government bonds – which means experts are confident that the bond issuer is not at risk of defaulting. - Assured income
Majority of government bonds are fixed-income investments, which means investors can expect to receive interest payments regularly.
This assurance also means government bonds offer more liquidity, and they can easily be traded anytime should you need cash quickly. -
Lower risk
The biggest risk in bonds are inflation and interest rates, which are inversely proportional. This means:
When inflation is low, interest rates rise and returns increase, but bond prices decrease.
When inflation goes up, interest rates decline and returns decrease, but bond prices increase.
Inflation may decrease the value of the accumulated income by the time the bond matures, but using different strategies may ensure that the benefits would outweigh the risks.
For instance, the bond laddering strategy requires investment in bonds with different maturities and reinvesting the principal amount and gains in the next maturing bond. This strategy helps mitigate inflation risk while also ensuring that a portion of your money retains liquidity.
Another thing to note is that there are AGBs that can protect against inflation – the face value of exchange-traded Treasury Indexed Bonds are adjusted quarterly based on the consumer price index. -
Liquidity
Government bonds are offered in the primary market as large parcels worth at least $1 million, but AGBs may also be purchased in smaller parcels in the secondary market.
AGBs are listed in the Australian Securities Exchange in the form of CHESS depositary interests (CDIs), and this allows retail investors to gain beneficial ownership of small parcels.
Since smaller parcels allow retail investors to participate in holding AGBs, offering them as CDIs produces a greater demand from investors and increases its liquidity. -
Tax benefits
Some AGBs benefit from tax exemptions. However, not all AGBs are created equal, and some tax conditions differ depending on the bond issuer.
For instance, municipal bonds may only receive a tax exemption at the municipal level, while some AGBs may offer a full tax exemption on its earnings.
Explore nestegg to learn more about bonds and other debt securities.
- Yes
Many investment experts recommend adding government bonds to an investment portfolio in order to reap its benefits while limiting risks and losses.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(57) "/invest-money/bonds/reasons-to-invest-in-government-bonds" ["image"]=> string(29) "/images/basic/default-new.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(13) "default image" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#8123 (57) { ["id"]=> int(14794) ["title"]=> string(46) "What is credit investing and how does it work?" ["alias"]=> string(45) "what-is-credit-investing-and-how-does-it-work" ["introtext"]=> string(188) "A well-diversified investment portfolio typically includes credit investments to balance risk and return. Here’s what you need to know about credit investing and how it works.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(5011) "Credit investing refers to investment in credit or debt instruments – it’s basically what institutional, professional and independent investors do when they include debt securities in their portfolio.
Debt securities can be used as defensive assets to protect your investment portfolio against market volatility and inflation – and you may already be doing it if you’re a bondholder.
Credit investing can be a good way to balance risk in your portfolio, but bonds aren’t the only products you can access.
Here’s what you need to know about credit investments and how it works.
Debt v equity investment
A diversified investment portfolio that is aimed at maximising returns and minimising risk typically includes both debt and equity investments to balance risk and return.
Debt investments function like an IOU because the bond issuer promises bondholders steady interest payments for a fixed period and full payment of the debt upon maturity. Investing in debt securities, such as bonds, is a good way to preserve their capital while earning a fixed income.
Equity investment refers to investments in publicly listed entities or companies whose equity shares are traded in exchanges. The shares investors purchase entitle them to partial or beneficial ownership in the underlying asset.
How debt securities work
Most debt securities work like bonds – with the issuer promising to pay an agreed interest on the borrowed money periodically until maturity when they must pay the face value. However, the income derived from bonds may be greater or lesser than expected depending on the type of interest rate on offer.
- Fixed-rate securities apply the same coupon rate for the entire life of the bond despite market fluctuations. This is the simplest and most common type of bond.
- Floating-rate securities refer to debt securities with coupon rates that move according to benchmark rates, such as the bank bill swap rate. This movement offers protection from the effects of inflation.
- Zero-coupon securities are debt securities that do not pay out the published coupon regularly. Instead, the issuer keeps the expected coupon payments for the duration of the bond and only pays everything – all coupon payments and the face value – upon maturity or redemption.
Note that investors must still pay tax on the coupon each year even if they don’t receive it.
Common types of debt investments
Bonds
Adding bonds to an investment portfolio is a good defensive measure to counter the volatility of equities; however, not all bonds guarantee protection and consistent returns.
- Australian government bonds
Government bonds are debt securities issued by municipal, state and national governments through their respective treasury departments.
Most government bonds are fixed-term fixed-income investment assets, but they are generally safer than other debt securities because the issuers are government entities. - Corporate bonds
A corporate bond is a debt security that corporate entities issue as a way to raise money for their endeavours. Investors who purchase the bond are, in essence, lenders to the issuing companies.
There are different types of corporate bonds with varying conditions and exposure to risk. But while the safety of your money isn’t always guaranteed, corporate bonds often offer higher interest rates – exercise due diligence and choose wisely.
Commercial paper
Commercial paper refers to short-term unsecured debt securities issued by corporate entities that are usually issued at a discount from its face value.
Mortgage-backed security
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are similar to bonds, but instead of lending money to government or corporate entities, the investor lends money to home buyers without being the actual lenders.
That is, home buyers still take out home loans from banks and similar lenders, but these lenders pool different home loans together and sell the mortgages at a discount to be packaged as MBS. The MBS are then sold to investors who will receive coupon payments periodically until maturity – similar to bonds.
Distressed debt investing
Distressed debt investing is similar to buying bonds but with a focus on purchasing debt investments that are trading at a significant discount because the underlying entities are at a risk of bankruptcy.
These types of assets are considered below investment grade and are therefore high-risk investments.
Explore nestegg to learn more about investing.
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A well-diversified investment portfolio typically includes credit investments to balance risk and return. Here’s what you need to know about credit investing and how it works.
Write comment (0 Comments) " ["jcfields"]=> array(9) { [1]=> object(stdClass)#8659 (33) { ["id"]=> int(1) ["title"]=> string(17) "Automatic tagging" ["name"]=> string(17) "automatic-tagging" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2018-08-29 05:26:30" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2355) ["ordering"]=> int(-1) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8326 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8142 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#8144 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#8145 (2) { ["name"]=> string(3) "Yes" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#8143 (2) { ["name"]=> string(2) "No" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#8325 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#8140 (6) { ["hint"]=> string(0) 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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(65) "/invest-money/bonds/what-is-credit-investing-and-how-does-it-work" ["image"]=> string(52) "images/article-826x550/australian-coins-stack-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(16) "credit investing" } [4]=> object(stdClass)#8122 (57) { ["id"]=> int(13554) ["title"]=> string(31) "Blockchain bond sees $50m boost" ["alias"]=> string(30) "blockchain-bond-sees-50m-boost" ["introtext"]=> string(147) "The first bond to be created, transferred and managed through its life cycle using blockchain technology has received a new funding boost.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(2463) "In a bid to increase its liquidity of the blockchain bond and broaden market participation, the World Bank has raised an additional $50 million for its kangaroo bond due August 2020.
The announcement came after Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and the World Bank, with TD Securities (TD) acting as a market maker, added additional capability to the platform by enabling secondary bond trading recorded on blockchain, making this “the first bond whose issuance and trading are recorded using distributed ledger technology”, it’s been reported.
According to a statement, the successful tap expands market participation for the product, with the Bond-i platform combining three joint lead managers, CBA, RBC Capital Markets (RBC) and TD.
It also brings together new market participants, including an offshore investor, and the existing investor community, including ongoing support and input from TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation.
The new issuance “builds on the success of the platform”, taking the total capital raised for the blockchain project to $160 million, after an initial $110 million raise by the World Bank and CBA, derived from two-year bonds back in 2018.
It will reportedly further enable capital markets to leverage distributed ledger technologies for faster, more efficient and more secure transactions.
Commenting on the fundraising efforts, World Bank’s head of funding, Andrea Dore, said, “We are happy to see the continued, strong support and collaboration from investors and partners.”
“The World Bank’s innovation and experience in the capital markets is key to working with our member countries to increase digitisation to boost productivity in their economies and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals,” she continued.
According to Sophie Gilder, the head of blockchain and AI at CBA, the bank “now has tangible evidence from our first bond offering using blockchain technology and subsequent bond management, secondary trading and tap issue via the same platform, that blockchain technology can deliver a new level of efficiency, transparency and risk management capability versus the existing market infrastructure”.
She said the bank’s next intention will be to deliver “additional functionality to deliver greater efficiencies in settlement, custody and regulatory compliance”.
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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2019-08-20 02:15:30" ["slug"]=> string(36) "13554:blockchain-bond-sees-50m-boost" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8642 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
The first bond to be created, transferred and managed through its life cycle using blockchain technology has received a new funding boost.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(50) "/invest-money/bonds/blockchain-bond-sees-50m-boost" ["image"]=> string(35) "images/article-826x550/CBA826-1.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(3) "CBA" } [5]=> object(stdClass)#8121 (57) { ["id"]=> int(13394) ["title"]=> string(54) "Solutions to the record-low cash returns for investors" ["alias"]=> string(54) "solutions-to-the-record-low-cash-returns-for-investors" ["introtext"]=> string(266) "With interest rates expected to move lower in 2019 and a growing number of Australians joining the active retirement base each day, the hunt for investment-led income will become more pressing, a strategist has said.
" ["fulltext"]=> string(2951) "Raf Choudhury, a senior investment strategist with State Street Global Advisors, has highlighted that traditional assets are no longer delivering returns due to a tough investment climate.
Just seven months ago, most expectations were that, given global synchronised growth, central banks were more likely to be raising rates at this point in time of 2019, the strategist outlined.
“However, more moderate growth in 2019, along with a continued lack of inflation (globally), has led to a change in expectations,” Mr Choudhury said.
He noted this as being reflected in the consecutive cash rate cuts – to a historically low 1.00 per cent in early July.
As a result of a lower for longer environment, traditional assets that an investor could once turn to are no longer delivering the income or yield that they used to, with Mr Choudhury giving the example of a term deposit.
He also flagged a compression in yields for Australian bonds “being broadly in line with the cash rate”, with the current yield on 10-year Australian government bonds sitting at 1.5 per cent as of 3 June 2019.
For Mr Choudhury, this is another indication that cash rates are still in decline.
As a result, the strategist urged investors using their investments as an income source to reconsider how they may best position their portfolio to drive income when traditional assets are not able to deliver the returns they once did.
Some solutions for investors
Investors looking to balance risks associated with reaching further down the risk spectrum in their “search for yield” are now looking for multi-asset solutions, Mr Choudhury said.
Mr Choudhury said that investors with the willingness to take on some additional risk could find high dividend yield equities a good source of income, since dividend yields have historically remained relatively stable.
“These exposures can be blended with corporate bonds (a relatively defensive investment) and government bonds and cash to help generate a meaningful income yield while moderating the overall level of risk,” he explained.
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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2019-07-18 03:41:47" ["slug"]=> string(60) "13394:solutions-to-the-record-low-cash-returns-for-investors" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8653 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "- Yes
With interest rates expected to move lower in 2019 and a growing number of Australians joining the active retirement base each day, the hunt for investment-led income will become more pressing, a strategist has said.
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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(74) "/invest-money/bonds/solutions-to-the-record-low-cash-returns-for-investors" ["image"]=> string(43) "images/article-826x550/Raf-Choudhury-ne.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(13) "Raf Choudhury" } }Subscribe to our newletters
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