Economy

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In a significant move aimed at addressing wage disparities, the Fair Work Commission has announced a 4.75% increase in Australia's minimum wage. This decision is seen as a crucial step for the country's lowest-paid workers, who have been grappling with limited wage growth in recent years. The announcement has sparked a range of reactions from industry experts and business leaders, highlighting the complexities of balancing employee needs with economic realities.

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Matthew Dickason, CEO of Hays APAC, provided insight into the implications of the wage hike. "Australia's lowest paid workers will be pleased with the Fair Work Commission’s decision to provide a 4.75% minimum wage increase," said Dickason. He pointed to data from the Hays Salary Guide, which reveals that lower-income workers have been disproportionately affected by stagnant wage growth. According to the guide, 62% of workers earning less than A$79,000 reported little to no meaningful salary growth, in stark contrast to the 36% of those earning above A$80,000 who experienced similar stagnation.

The wage increase comes at a time when the labour market is experiencing significant tension. Employers are finding themselves in a tight spot as they navigate the challenge of absorbing higher labour costs amidst persistent inflation and uneven demand. Dickason noted, "The decision also highlights a growing tension in the labour market. Employers are increasingly focused on their capacity to absorb higher labour costs in a period of still-elevated inflation and uneven demand, while employees face ongoing cost-of-living pressures."

The complexities of this decision are further underscored by the expectations of salary growth from both employers and employees. Hays' research indicates that employers are anticipating average salary increases of 3.8% over the next year. However, despite these anticipated raises, a significant portion of the workforce feels undercompensated. "Half of workers feel underpaid despite receiving pay rises," Dickason added, emphasising the disconnect between employer projections and employee satisfaction.

The Fair Work Commission's decision is not just about numbers; it reflects the broader priorities and challenges within the Australian labour market. As Dickason explained, "Wage decisions like this continue to reflect the differing priorities of workers seeking stronger pay growth and businesses managing cost pressures in the near term." This delicate balance requires businesses to rethink their strategies for employee retention and engagement.

For employers, the challenge extends beyond merely competing on salary. Dickason suggested that companies unable to offer substantial pay increases must focus on other areas to maintain employee satisfaction and loyalty. "For employers, those that cannot compete on salary alone will need to place greater emphasis on career progression, skills development and broader employee benefits to maintain engagement and retain talent," he said.

The decision by the Fair Work Commission has been met with a mix of relief and concern across different sectors. While employees welcome the wage increase as a much-needed relief amid rising living costs, employers are wary of the financial impact on their operations. The business community is particularly concerned about the potential for increased operational costs and the subsequent impact on hiring and investment plans.

The broader economic context cannot be ignored, as businesses continue to face challenges related to global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand patterns. The wage increase adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging economic landscape. Employers are now tasked with finding innovative ways to balance cost management with the need to attract and retain talent in a competitive job market.

As the Fair Work Commission's decision takes effect, it remains to be seen how both employers and employees will navigate the evolving landscape. The increase in the minimum wage is a step towards addressing wage disparities, but it also serves as a reminder of the ongoing challenges in balancing economic growth with fair compensation. The coming months will be crucial in determining how businesses adapt to these changes and how workers perceive their value in the evolving labour market.

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In a significant move aimed at addressing wage disparities, the Fair Work Commission has announced a 4.75% increase in Australia's minimum wage. This decision is seen as a crucial step for the country's lowest-paid workers, who have been grappling with limited wage growth in recent years. The announcement has sparked a range of reactions from industry experts and business leaders, highlighting the complexities of balancing employee needs with economic realities.

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As the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures today, revealing a dip in inflation, industry leaders are cautiously optimistic. However, this change is not expected to immediately alter employer sentiment, according to Martin Herbst, CEO of recruitment software company JobAdder.

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Herbst commented, "A dip in inflation is a step in the right direction, but it will not shift employer sentiment overnight. Until the economic picture clears and the trimmed mean comes down consistently, businesses will keep hedging with flexibility over permanent headcount." His remarks highlight the ongoing uncertainty faced by employers, who are hesitant to make permanent hiring decisions until they see sustained economic stability.

The latest data from JobAdder underscores this cautious approach. "Our data shows job creation is trending down, and I expect more of the same through the next quarter at least. One read will not change that. Employers are saying 'not yet' or 'not permanently' until there is more stability," Herbst explained. This sentiment reflects a broader trend in the job market, where temporary and flexible roles are preferred over permanent positions.

The Job Market Conditions Index (JMCI), a key indicator from JobAdder, currently sits at 48.1, signalling a market that continues to favour employers. This index measures the balance of power between jobseekers and employers, with a score below 50 indicating a market advantageous to employers. Herbst noted, "JobAdder's Job Market Conditions Index sits at 48.1, reflecting a market still tilted toward employers."

For jobseekers navigating this challenging landscape, Herbst offered strategic advice. "Jobseekers should prioritise relationships with recruiters over volume applications. Recruiters say they’re often placing candidates they already know faster than those who apply cold," he advised. This insight suggests that networking and maintaining strong connections with recruitment professionals could prove more beneficial than submitting numerous applications without personal engagement.

The broader economic context further complicates the employment landscape. While the dip in inflation is a positive sign, it is just one piece of a complex puzzle. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been closely monitoring inflation trends as it considers adjustments to interest rates, which directly impact business investment and consumer spending.

In recent months, businesses across various sectors have been grappling with rising operational costs and supply chain disruptions. These challenges have forced many companies to adopt a cautious approach to hiring, opting for temporary solutions to manage workforce needs without committing to long-term expenses.

Herbst's insights into the current job market dynamics are echoed by other industry experts who have observed similar trends. The preference for flexible staffing solutions is seen as a way for businesses to remain agile in the face of economic uncertainties. Until there is more clarity on the economic front, particularly regarding inflation and interest rates, this cautious approach is likely to persist.

The current scenario also presents an opportunity for jobseekers to reassess their strategies. Building relationships with recruiters, as Herbst suggests, can provide a competitive edge in a market where employers hold the upper hand. By focusing on quality over quantity in their job search efforts, candidates may improve their chances of securing desirable positions.

As the situation evolves, both employers and jobseekers will need to remain adaptable. The interplay between inflation trends, economic policies, and market conditions will continue to shape the employment landscape in the coming months. For now, the dip in inflation offers a glimmer of hope, but the road to stability remains uncertain.

In summary, while the latest CPI figures bring a positive development, the path to economic recovery and job market stability will require sustained improvements and strategic adjustments from all stakeholders involved.

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As the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures today, revealing a dip in inflation, industry leaders are cautiously optimistic. However, this change is not expected to immediately alter employer sentiment, according to Martin Herbst, CEO of recruitment software company JobAdder.

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Australia's inflation landscape experienced a slight reprieve in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today. The figures reveal that annual inflation has edged down to 4.2% from March's 4.6%, a development that MLC Senior Economist Bob Cunneen attributes primarily to a reduction in fuel prices.

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“This moderation in price pressures largely reflects lower fuel prices in April,” Cunneen noted, highlighting the impact of the Federal Government's temporary cut in the fuel excise tax by 26 cents per litre. This measure, which is set to last until the end of June, has played a crucial role in easing the burden on consumers at the pump.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) echoed this sentiment in its media statement, pointing out that “automotive fuel prices fell 7.0 per cent from March to April, after rising by 32.8 per cent in the previous month.” Despite this decline, the ABS cautioned that “automotive fuel prices are still 23.5 per cent higher compared to February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict.”

While the drop in fuel prices has provided some relief, Cunneen and the ABS both warn of emerging challenges in other sectors. “Regrettably, there are escalating price pressures in transport and construction costs that are starting to emerge,” Cunneen stated. The ABS further elaborated, saying, “The impact of higher oil prices has also been seen in products and services with high freight and logistics costs, such as parcel delivery and building materials.”

Postal services and new dwelling construction have particularly felt the pinch, with prices increasing by 12.4% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to a year ago. These figures underscore the complex dynamics at play in Australia's inflationary environment, where gains in one area are offset by pressures in another.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a challenging task in navigating these waters. Its preferred inflation measure, the Trimmed Mean, recorded an annual price rise of 3.4% in April, up slightly from March's 3.3%. This figure remains above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%, traditionally prompting interest rate hikes to temper inflation.

However, Cunneen suggests that the case for another immediate rate increase is not compelling. “The RBA has already raised interest rates by 0.75% this year in three consecutive moves (February, March & May),” he explained. “Based on April’s CPI data, the case for another interest rate rise at June’s RBA meeting is not compelling.”

Looking ahead, the RBA forecasts that headline inflation could peak at 4.8% by June 2026, before gradually aligning with the target range over the next year. This forecast hinges on several assumptions, including global oil prices peaking at US$100 per barrel and then declining to US$75 as the Iran conflict abates. The potential for an agreement between Iran and the USA lends some optimism to this outlook, though it remains contingent on diplomatic resolutions.

Cunneen noted the complexity of these forecasts, stating, “This ‘baseline’ forecast is dependent on global oil prices peaking at US$ 100 per barrel and then grinding down to US$ 75 over coming years with the Iran War ending.” He added that rational decision-making by both Tehran and Washington would be crucial to achieving this scenario.

While an additional 0.25% interest rate rise by the RBA remains a possibility this year given Australia's persistent inflation, Cunneen believes that June's meeting is likely to see no change. As the nation grapples with a mix of easing and escalating pressures, policymakers and consumers alike will be closely monitoring the evolving economic landscape.

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Australia's inflation landscape experienced a slight reprieve in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today. The figures reveal that annual inflation has edged down to 4.2% from March's 4.6%, a development that MLC Senior Economist Bob Cunneen attributes primarily to a reduction in fuel prices.

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Australia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has sparked a flurry of analysis from economic experts, revealing a complex picture of the nation's inflationary landscape. State Street, a global financial services provider with an impressive US$54.5 trillion in assets under custody and administration and US$5.5 trillion in assets under management, has offered critical insights into the implications of this data for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the broader economic environment.

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Dwyfor Evans, Head of APAC Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, highlighted the nuanced nature of the report. "A weaker than expected April inflation report cannot mask the continued divergence between energy impacted headline prices and somewhat more tempered cost inflation," he said. This divergence is evident in the headline CPI, which registered at 40 basis points, falling short of the predicted 60 basis points. This shortfall suggests that the direct impact of previously surging fuel prices is beginning to recede.

However, Evans cautioned that this does not necessarily spell relief for the RBA. "This gives the RBA only modest room for optimism as the continued rise in core prices towards 3.5% will bias rates higher, particularly on any evidence that inflation expectations become unanchored," he added. Despite some signs of a weakening employment market, the persistent pressure on core prices means that the Reserve Bank must remain vigilant about inflationary trends.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, an APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management, echoed these sentiments, noting the complexity of the current economic scenario. "Today’s downside surprise in the headline CPI is welcome and likely cements the case for RBA on hold in June," Bhimavarapu remarked. However, he pointed out that the rise in trimmed mean CPI could indicate emerging secondary inflationary effects, which are a cause for concern.

One significant factor that could exacerbate inflationary pressures is the potential for an El Niño event. Bhimavarapu explained, "A high probability of El Niño is still the more meaningful inflationary concern for the year. Even though the relationship is nonlinear, El Niño episodes are typically associated with weaker crop yields, which poses upside risks to food prices." Given that food constitutes approximately 17% of the CPI basket, any increase in food prices could have a substantial impact on overall inflation, potentially triggering broader second-round inflationary pressures throughout the economy.

The mixed signals from the latest CPI data present a challenging landscape for policymakers and investors alike. On one hand, the moderation in headline inflation offers a glimmer of hope that the worst of the energy price shocks may be behind us. On the other hand, the upward trajectory in core inflation and the looming threat of El Niño underscore the need for continued vigilance.

For the RBA, these developments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy in the coming months. While the central bank may find some justification for holding rates steady in the short term, any signs of unanchored inflation expectations or further upward pressure on core prices could prompt a reassessment. The interplay between these domestic inflationary trends and global economic conditions will be crucial in shaping the RBA's policy decisions.

Investors, meanwhile, are left to navigate this uncertain terrain, balancing the potential for rate hikes against the backdrop of an evolving inflationary environment. The insights from State Street's experts highlight the importance of staying informed and adaptable in the face of shifting economic dynamics.

As Australia grapples with these inflationary challenges, the coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of both monetary policy and the broader economy. With experts like Evans and Bhimavarapu providing valuable analysis, stakeholders across the financial landscape will be keenly watching for any further developments that could influence the nation's economic outlook.

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Australia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has sparked a flurry of analysis from economic experts, revealing a complex picture of the nation's inflationary landscape. State Street, a global financial services provider with an impressive US$54.5 trillion in assets under custody and administration and US$5.5 trillion in assets under management, has offered critical insights into the implications of this data for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the broader economic environment.

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In a revealing analysis of the current job market, Martin Herbst, CEO of JobAdder, has provided insights following the release of the latest Labour Force Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data indicates a troubling trend for job seekers, with unemployment rates on the rise and a decline in job creation and permanent roles.

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"The ABS confirmed today that unemployment is up, and we know in the market that job creation and permanent roles are also both trending down," Herbst stated. "That whole picture tells you where the market is heading, and it is probably not what job seekers are hoping to hear in this environment."

The latest figures serve as a stark reminder of the challenges facing the Australian job market. According to Herbst, JobAdder’s Job Market Conditions Index currently sits at 48.1, signalling a market that is in "mixed territory with a slight edge for employers." This index reflects the growing competition for fewer available roles, a situation that is causing significant pressure on job seekers. "There are fewer roles, and more competition for each one. That's the pressure jobseekers are feeling that unemployment alone doesn't capture," he explained.

The current economic landscape presents a complex scenario for both employers and job seekers. While the recent federal Budget provided some relief through cost-of-living and small business support measures, Herbst cautions that it is still too early to see these efforts translate into increased hiring confidence. "While last week's Budget backed cost-of-living and some small business support, it’s too early to see that land in hiring confidence," he noted. "But when businesses feel stable, job creation follows. This is what everyone is holding out for."

The government’s Budget, announced last week, aimed to provide a safety net for struggling Australians and small businesses amid rising living costs. However, the immediate impact on employment figures remains uncertain. Economic analysts suggest that while such measures are crucial, their effects on job creation and employment rates may take time to materialise.

The current job market dynamics underscore the importance of strategic planning for both job seekers and employers. For job seekers, understanding the competitive landscape is key to navigating job applications and securing employment. On the other hand, employers are urged to consider the long-term benefits of stabilising their operations, which could lead to increased job creation down the line.

Herbst's insights highlight the delicate balance required to foster a robust job market. As businesses grapple with economic uncertainties, the hope is that stabilisation efforts will eventually lead to more favourable conditions for job creation. Until then, job seekers are likely to face continued challenges, with heightened competition for available roles.

The Labour Force Data from the ABS provides a critical snapshot of the current employment situation, serving as a valuable tool for policymakers, businesses, and job seekers alike. As the nation navigates these challenging times, the focus remains on fostering conditions that will lead to sustainable job growth and economic stability.

In summary, the latest data from the ABS, coupled with insights from industry leaders like Martin Herbst, paints a picture of a job market in flux. With unemployment on the rise and job creation on the decline, the path forward requires careful consideration and strategic action from all stakeholders involved.

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In a revealing analysis of the current job market, Martin Herbst, CEO of JobAdder, has provided insights following the release of the latest Labour Force Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data indicates a troubling trend for job seekers, with unemployment rates on the rise and a decline in job creation and permanent roles.

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In a surprising turn of events, the latest Labour Force data has revealed a significant rise in unemployment, exceeding expectations and signalling a potential shift in the labour market narrative. According to Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management, this development could have substantial implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

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"Today’s jump in unemployment, well above the 4.3% consensus and even our 4.4% call, signals that the labour market narrative may be shifting faster than expected," Bhimavarapu stated. This unexpected rise in unemployment has caught many analysts off guard, as it challenges the previously held consensus and forecasts.

The newly released data indicates that the unemployment rate has risen beyond the anticipated 4.3%, with State Street's own projections having been slightly higher at 4.4%. The actual figures, however, surpassed these estimates, suggesting that the labour market may be experiencing more profound changes than previously thought.

Bhimavarapu further elaborated on the implications of this data for the RBA's decision-making process. "It validates the RBA’s inclination to hold in June and raises the bar significantly for a change," he explained. The RBA had been expected to maintain its current stance, but the latest unemployment figures could now prompt a reevaluation of future policy moves.

The rise in unemployment is not the only concern on the horizon. Bhimavarapu highlighted another pressing issue that could impact the economic landscape in the near term. "Even if the Iran conflict ends soon as we expect, the bigger near-term story remains the emerging inflation shock," he noted. This potential inflationary pressure could complicate the RBA's efforts to balance economic growth and price stability.

State Street's high-frequency tracker has already detected signs of a sharp pickup in inflation over the next three months. This development could further strain the labour market and complicate the RBA's policy decisions. Bhimavarapu's analysis suggests that the central bank may face increasing challenges in navigating these economic uncertainties.

Looking ahead, Bhimavarapu offered insights into the potential trajectory of unemployment in Australia. "Further ahead, we still see unemployment drifting toward 4.8% by year-end," he predicted. If this forecast materialises, it could have significant implications for the RBA's policy outlook.

The prospect of rising unemployment, coupled with emerging inflationary pressures, could prompt a shift in the RBA's approach. "It will not just be against expectations of the market and the government, but also of the RBA’s," Bhimavarapu remarked. This potential pivot to easing could mark a departure from the central bank's current stance, as it seeks to address evolving economic challenges.

The unexpected rise in unemployment and the looming inflation shock underscore the complexities facing policymakers in the current economic environment. As the RBA grapples with these issues, market participants and analysts will be closely monitoring future developments to gauge the potential impact on Australia's economic trajectory.

The latest Labour Force data has unveiled a surprising rise in unemployment that surpasses expectations and raises questions about the future direction of the labour market. State Street's Krishna Bhimavarapu highlights the implications of this development for the RBA's policy decisions, emphasising the potential challenges posed by emerging inflationary pressures. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, the central bank may need to reassess its approach to navigate these uncertainties effectively.

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In a surprising turn of events, the latest Labour Force data has revealed a significant rise in unemployment, exceeding expectations and signalling a potential shift in the labour market narrative. According to Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management, this development could have substantial implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

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object(stdClass)#11150 (1) { ["options"]=> object(stdClass)#11148 (2) { ["options0"]=> object(stdClass)#11147 (2) { ["name"]=> string(8) "Inactive" ["value"]=> string(1) "0" } ["options1"]=> object(stdClass)#11149 (2) { ["name"]=> string(6) "Active" ["value"]=> string(1) "1" } } } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#11144 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#11152 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(0) "" ["class"]=> string(9) "btn-group" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(0) "" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(5) "radio" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) 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NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } [2]=> object(stdClass)#11493 (33) { ["id"]=> int(2) ["title"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["name"]=> string(14) "embedded-video" ["checked_out"]=> NULL ["checked_out_time"]=> NULL ["note"]=> string(0) "" ["state"]=> int(1) ["access"]=> int(1) ["created_time"]=> string(19) "2020-06-20 01:43:32" ["created_user_id"]=> int(2351) ["ordering"]=> int(5) ["language"]=> string(1) "*" ["fieldparams"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#11153 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#11158 (4) { ["buttons"]=> string(0) "" ["width"]=> string(0) "" ["height"]=> string(0) "" ["filter"]=> string(0) "" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["params"]=> object(Joomla\Registry\Registry)#11155 (3) { ["data":protected]=> object(stdClass)#11160 (10) { ["hint"]=> string(29) "Paste your embedded code here" ["class"]=> string(0) "" ["label_class"]=> string(0) "" ["show_on"]=> string(1) "2" ["render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["showlabel"]=> string(1) "1" ["label_render_class"]=> string(0) "" ["display"]=> string(1) "2" ["layout"]=> string(0) "" ["display_readonly"]=> string(1) "2" } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["type"]=> string(6) "editor" ["default_value"]=> string(0) "" ["context"]=> string(19) "com_content.article" ["group_id"]=> int(2) ["label"]=> string(14) "Embedded Video" ["description"]=> string(0) "" ["required"]=> int(0) ["only_use_in_subform"]=> int(0) ["language_title"]=> NULL ["language_image"]=> NULL ["editor"]=> NULL ["access_level"]=> string(6) "Public" ["author_name"]=> string(18) "Jeremiah Sebastian" ["group_title"]=> string(22) "Summary points + video" ["group_access"]=> int(1) ["group_state"]=> int(1) ["group_note"]=> string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(104) "/invest-money/economy/labour-force-data-reveals-unexpected-unemployment-rise-says-state-street-economist" ["image"]=> string(121) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1779735749/pexels-pavel-danilyuk-7654616_c0u8eu.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(83) "Labour force data reveals unexpected unemployment rise, says State Street economist" } }