Economy

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In a surprising turn of events, Australia's economy has shown greater resilience than anticipated, with the latest Q2 GDP report revealing a stronger performance largely driven by vigorous household consumption. This development comes amidst a backdrop of cautious monetary policy, which has been primarily focused on mitigating a potential domestic market slowdown. However, the robust jobs market and persistent consumer spending are prompting analysts to reassess the current economic landscape and its implications for future policy decisions.

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Dwyfor Evans, Head of APAC Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, has noted the significance of this unexpected GDP strength. "A better than expected Q2 GDP report borne largely of strong household consumption. This is notable as monetary policy continues to focus on a potential domestic market slowdown, but with the jobs market robust and consumption strong, it again raises questions around the extent of policy accommodation," Evans remarked.

The Australian economy's performance in the second quarter has been buoyed by a combination of factors, chief among them being the resilience of household consumption. Despite concerns over inflation and potential economic cooling, Australians have continued to spend robustly, driving economic growth and challenging the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) current monetary policy stance. This strong consumer activity, coupled with a healthy jobs market, suggests that the Australian economy may be more resilient to external shocks than previously thought.

However, this economic buoyancy is accompanied by challenges, particularly on the inflation front. The State Street PriceStats series, which tracks online prices, has indicated continued strong price pressures, suggesting that inflation remains above target levels. This persistent inflationary environment complicates the RBA's policy calculus, as the central bank must balance supporting economic growth with the need to keep inflation in check.

The implications of this economic scenario are significant for the RBA's future policy decisions. The prospects for rate easing, which some had anticipated as a response to a potential economic slowdown, now appear increasingly dim. Instead, the robust economic indicators may necessitate a more cautious approach from the RBA, potentially leading to modest increases in short-term interest rates.

This development also has implications for the Australian dollar (AUD). As central banks in other regions continue to ease monetary policy, the relative strength of Australia's economy and the potential for higher interest rates could provide support for the AUD. This dynamic could make Australian assets more attractive to international investors, further bolstering the currency.

Evans highlighted this point, stating, "This will add some support to the AUD as central banks elsewhere continue to ease, and will see short term rates back up modestly. This is another reason for the RBA to maintain a cautious stance on its policy levers."

The RBA now faces a complex economic landscape, with strong domestic consumption and a robust jobs market on one hand, and persistent inflationary pressures on the other. The central bank's challenge will be to navigate these competing forces, ensuring that economic growth is sustained while preventing inflation from spiralling out of control.

As the RBA deliberates its next moves, it will need to consider the broader implications of its policy decisions. A cautious approach may be warranted, given the uncertainties in the global economic environment and the potential for external shocks. However, the central bank must also remain vigilant to domestic economic conditions, ensuring that its policy levers are appropriately calibrated to support sustainable growth.

Australia's stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP report has prompted a re-evaluation of the country's economic outlook and the RBA's policy stance. With robust household consumption and a healthy jobs market, the Australian economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of potential headwinds. However, the ongoing challenge of managing inflationary pressures will require careful consideration from policymakers as they navigate the path forward. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, all eyes will be on the RBA and its strategic decisions in the coming months.

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In a surprising turn of events, Australia's economy has shown greater resilience than anticipated, with the latest Q2 GDP report revealing a stronger performance largely driven by vigorous household consumption. This development comes amidst a backdrop of cautious monetary policy, which has been primarily focused on mitigating a potential domestic market slowdown. However, the robust jobs market and persistent consumer spending are prompting analysts to reassess the current economic landscape and its implications for future policy decisions.

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An economist from State Street Global Advisors has called for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in July following today's Consumer Price Index data for June.

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Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC Economist at State Street Global Advisors, said the central bank should act to safeguard economic growth as inflation pressures continue to ease.

"We are convinced that the RBA needs to cut in July to safeguard growth as inflation is clearly out of their way now: the trimmed-mean CPI at 2.4% is the lowest since November 2021," he said.

Bhimavarapu said weak consumption and growth trends in the second quarter supported the case for early monetary policy easing.

"We are tracking faint consumption and growth in Q2, and hence, the Bank may do well to frontload the cut to July," he said.

However, the economist suggested the central bank may take a measured approach to further rate reductions after an initial cut.

"We think the cash rate might still end the year at 3.10%, as the RBA might take a pause after frontloading cuts," Bhimavarapu said.

State Street Global Advisors is part of State Street Corporation, one of the world's leading providers of financial services to investors with US$46.8 trillion in assets under custody and administration, and $4.7 trillion in assets under management.

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An economist from State Street Global Advisors has called for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in July following today's Consumer Price Index data for June.

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Australia's latest GDP growth data has come in significantly below expectations, prompting an economist to suggest the Reserve Bank may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively.

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The quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.2 per cent fell short of the already low expectations set by economists and was three times slower than March projections.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, said the weak data fundamentally changes the approach to the Australian economy.

"Today's GDP growth data came in below our low bar (0.3% q/q) at 0.2%; it's three times slower than what we pencilled in March," Bhimavarapu said.

"This changes the fundamental approach to the Australian economy as the RBA may ease faster and potentially by larger magnitude when they meet next."

The economist said the data resolves questions about the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy stance.

"Either way, the data settles the debate that the cash rate remained restrictive for longer than perhaps needed and that growth is affected as a result," Bhimavarapu said.

The weak GDP figures suggest the Reserve Bank's restrictive monetary policy may have weighed more heavily on economic activity than initially anticipated.

The data is likely to influence the RBA's future policy decisions, with the possibility of more substantial rate cuts being considered at upcoming meetings.

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• Yes

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Australia's latest GDP growth data has come in significantly below expectations, prompting an economist to suggest the Reserve Bank may need to ease monetary policy more aggressively.

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Global equity and bond markets have experienced a turbulent start to 2025, primarily due to concerns that a potential tariff-driven trade war could heighten inflation and recession risks.

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However, a pause on most tariffs has diminished those concerns, according to State Street Global Advisors' 2025 Midyear Global Market Outlook released on Monday.

The investment management firm said it retained a cautious outlook, emphasising diversification of exposures and staying alert for opportunities during any drawdown periods.

State Street Global Advisors global chief investment officer Lori Heinel said much had changed since the beginning of the year.

"After a turbulent period that saw episodic swings in both equities and bonds in response to wide-ranging executive orders and the announcement of higher-than-expected tariffs, financial markets have since stabilised with the tariff imposition paused to allow for trade negotiations," she said.

The firm said there was now greater confidence that tariff levels would settle well below the original headline levels that spooked markets.

State Street maintained its growth forecasts and projections for central bank rate cuts, while recognising that tariffs at the lower end of the range would likely still bring some inflationary pressures in the US.

The firm said Europe's pledge to spend more on infrastructure and defence was a positive, bolstered by Germany easing its limits on government borrowing.

State Street chief economist Simona Mocuta said the firm did not anticipate a US recession, with European growth forecasts little changed and global growth expected to hover near trend.

"The 90-day delay in reciprocal tariff implementation (initially excluding China) is just one example; the changes to the Ukraine minerals deal that ultimately allowed for its signing is another," she said.

"The start of US-China talks suggests the potential for significant easing in that tit-for-tat tariff war as well."

Ms Mocuta said something especially important and positive had emerged from the chaos of recent months - the reform of the German debt brake.

"It speaks to a narrowing of the US growth outperformance and a more balanced global growth distribution, both of which are welcome," she said.

State Street head of macro policy research Elliot Hentov said the balance of risks had changed more dramatically than forecasts.

"The path to a soft landing was quite wide three months ago; it has since narrowed considerably. But it remains open," he said.

The firm said the bond market would be sensitive to US debt sustainability considerations, with the Trump administration promising a pro-growth agenda centred around fiscal stimulus.

For equities, State Street said uncertainty clouded the outlook as policy from Washington and broader geopolitical developments left unanswered questions.

The firm said fundamentals did not favour European equities, despite their strong start to 2025, while the US was hovering around a 9 per cent earnings growth estimate in 2025.

In fixed income, State Street retained its constructive view despite a turbulent start to the year for many bond markets.

For commodities, the firm held an optimistic view on precious metals, particularly gold, saying the main forces that had driven gold prices higher remained active.

State Street manages $4.7 trillion in assets under management globally.

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Global equity and bond markets have experienced a turbulent start to 2025, primarily due to concerns that a potential tariff-driven trade war could heighten inflation and recession risks.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates more quickly if next week's GDP data disappoints, economists said following today's consumer price index data for May.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported inflation remained within the RBA's target zone, with the trimmed mean rising to 2.8 per cent year-on-year.

However, construction work done data stalled at 0.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter against consensus expectations for a 0.5 per cent rise.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, said the inflation data was in line with expectations.

"Although the trimmed mean was up a notch to 2.8% y/y, the data are in line with expectations that inflation is in the RBA's target zone," Mr Bhimavarapu said.

"The key surprise was in the first partial data release for Q1 GDP – the construction work done which was reported to have stalled (0.0% q/q) against a consensus for a 0.5% rise."

"We increasingly feel that the RBA might cut faster or quicker if Q1 GDP data disappoints next week."

The April CPI came in slightly higher than expected at 2.4 per cent year-on-year, with the trimmed mean at 2.8 per cent, but remained consistent with the RBA's 2-3 per cent target range.

Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Markets, said nothing in the April data would deviate the bank from its recent statement following the cash rate announcement.

"Slightly higher than expected April CPI at 2.4% y/y with the trimmed mean at 2.8% but consistent with the RBA's 2-3% target range," Mr Evans said.

"Moreover, nothing in the April data to deviate from the Bank's recent statement following the cash rate announcement."

State Street's PriceStats online price series for Australia showed a modest uptick in May, but base effects would remain supportive for the official data for the next three months.

Mr Evans said base effects would become more of a challenge to the inflation target from September.

"Given the continued uncertainty around tariffs, strong jobs market and the base effects pressures in Q3, expect the RBA to maintain its cautious stance on prospective easing," he said.

State Street is one of the world's leading providers of financial services to investors with US$46.8 trillion in assets under custody and administration, and $4.7 trillion in assets under management.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates more quickly if next week's GDP data disappoints, economists said following today's consumer price index data for May.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary policy.

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State Street executives said the decision reflected optimism about inflation progress, though global uncertainties and labour market strength provided some offsetting concerns.

Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Markets, said the central bank's projections indicated a roadmap towards easing policy settings.

"The RBA eased the cash rate by 25bps, as widely expected," he said.

"Optimism on inflation was offset to some extent by uncertainty around the tariffs and the still strong jobs market, but projections on prices and rates alludes to a roadmap towards less restrictive policy."

Evans noted the decision provided clearer guidance than recent RBA communications.

"Some talk of a 'hawkish cut' before the decision, but global uncertainty aside, this was a clearer directional message from the RBA than we have seen for some time," he said.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, welcomed the rate reduction while highlighting potential economic headwinds ahead.

"Glad to see the RBA deliver on the widely expected 25 bps cut today," he said.

"Looking ahead, GDP growth in Q1 could tread water, as indicated by leading indicators."

Bhimavarapu suggested weaker growth could accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

"If growth surprises to the downside, we see higher chance for the cash rate reaching our forecast 3.10 per cent by December," he said.

The economist also flagged evolving global trade dynamics as a key consideration for future policy decisions.

"Global trade dynamics are looking to be reset with fast paced discussions between many countries," he said.

State Street manages $4.7 trillion in assets under management and provides custody and administration services for $46.8 trillion in assets globally.

The rate cut comes amid signs of moderating inflation pressures and concerns about economic growth momentum in Australia.

Financial markets had widely anticipated the 25 basis point reduction ahead of the RBA's decision.

The central bank's move reflects a shift from its previous cautious stance as policymakers balance inflation control with supporting economic growth.

State Street's forecast suggests further rate reductions could follow if economic conditions weaken more than expected.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary policy.

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