Economy

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Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the composition matters: firms face a consumption-led upswing with soft capex and a thin productivity cushion. For boards, this is a window to re-price, re-tool and reposition ahead of a tougher 2026 backdrop flagged by the RBA. Here’s the strategy brief—and the procurement map—for the next 12 months.

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Australia’s economy expanded faster than markets anticipated in the June quarter, surpassing a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter consensus expectation. The catch: growth was carried by households and government consumption, while public investment fell. That is not a trivial detail. It defines where revenue pools will expand, where margins are recoverable, and where risk sits on the 2025–26 horizon.

Demand-mix diagnostic: a Kaldor triangle for operators

Decompose the national accounts and you get a strategic read-out using a simple framing: C (households), G (government), I (investment). This quarter, C+G did the heavy lifting; I sagged. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February 2025 Statement on Monetary Policy flagged a period of below-trend growth with public demand upgraded on expenditure projections, while productivity (GDP per hour worked) remained subdued. That’s the backdrop for this beat: cyclical resilience, structural fragility.

Implications by sector: consumer-facing businesses can lean into volume recovery; government suppliers should prepare for steady pipelines; capital goods and construction remain patchy until investment re-accelerates. Exporters face a neutral-to-soft impulse absent a decisive rebound in global demand among Australia’s major trading partners, as the RBA cautioned earlier in the year.

Households: spend is holding, but cushion is thin

Household consumption outperformed expectations, aided by real wage stabilisation and targeted fiscal measures. However, the RBA notes the household saving ratio has fallen markedly from pandemic peaks, limiting shock absorption. With mortgage resets still echoing through discretionary budgets and services inflation sticky, consumer wallets are active but not bulletproof.

Playbook for consumer-facing firms: prioritise mix over volume. Tighten assortment to higher-margin SKUs; leverage data-driven promotions that protect unit economics. Supply chain discipline matters: 30–45 day inventory turns, dynamic replenishment, and freight hedging can defend gross margins if demand cools later in 2025.

Government demand: reliable revenue if you can navigate procurement

Public consumption rose even as public investment fell, a split that fits Canberra and state priorities: maintaining essential services (health, education, community services) while re-timing or reassessing capital programs. The Intergenerational Report (2023) projects lower debt-to-GDP trajectories than the 2021 report, preserving fiscal capacity for targeted programs. Budget 2025–26 underscored a growth agenda aimed at lifting household incomes by roughly $5,000 in today’s dollars, reinforcing productivity-oriented spending.

Where the contracts are: digital service delivery (especially in health and tax administration), defence sustainment, skills programs, and housing-related supply initiatives flagged through 2025. Suppliers should pre-qualify on whole-of-government panels, invest in security and privacy certifications, and align with Indigenous procurement and local content requirements. Expect payment terms to be reliable—cash flow friendly compared with many private contracts.

Investment slump: the productivity gap you can arbitrage

The most concerning signal is weak investment—both public capex this quarter and a broader softness in private intentions. Multiple business surveys through 2025 point to cautious sentiment. That’s rational in a higher-for-longer rate environment, but strategically risky: productivity is the only durable offset to rising labour and energy costs.

This is where counter-cyclical operators pull ahead. McKinsey estimates that generative AI could add trillions globally via productivity gains. Locally, momentum is real but inconsistent: the Australian Taxation Office has articulated governance for general-purpose AI, while ASIC’s Report 798 (October 2024) warns of a governance gap as AI adoption accelerates. Translation: the technology is investable if controls are robust.

Board-level move: approve a focused, 12–18 month investment tranche targeting three engines—process automation in back office, AI-augmented frontline (contact centres, sales enablement), and data foundations (governed lakehouse, MDM). Require measurable EBITDA contribution within 4–6 quarters and embed model risk management from day one.

Competitive edge: procurement fluency and AI-first operations

Two advantages will differentiate early movers over the next year:

• Procurement fluency with the state. Understanding grant calendars, standing offers, and evaluation criteria can unlock multi-year, inflation-linked revenue. Defence sustainment, digital health, and cyber uplift are recurring opportunities.
• AI-first operating models. Use retrieval-augmented generation for knowledge work, AI copilots for software development, and anomaly detection for finance and supply chain. The ATO’s governance posture demonstrates that high-trust AI is achievable in Australian public institutions—private firms should mirror that standard to accelerate approval cycles with customers and regulators.

The National AI Centre’s programs and Australia’s AI Month (2024) show the ecosystem is mobilising. But with market concentration in core digital rails (the ACCC noted Google’s search share near 94% as of August 2024), firms should architect for interoperability and avoid single-vendor lock-in.

Implementation reality: where operators win or stumble

Execution will beat macro. Five practical priorities:

• Pricing power: move from broad increases to targeted elasticities; deploy A/B-tested personalised offers to lift realised price without volume loss.
• Working capital: compress days sales outstanding with stricter credit policies; negotiate supplier terms tied to volume commitments.
• Labour: redesign roles around AI tools to lift throughput per FTE; reinvest productivity dividends into capability, not fixed headcount.
• Technology risk: align with ASIC’s governance guidance; institute model inventories, bias testing, and human-in-the-loop controls.
• Energy and transition: where capex is delayed, use energy performance contracts or offtake swaps to de-risk opex volatility while advancing decarbonisation.

Outlook: don’t confuse a beat with a boom

The RBA’s baseline still leans to subdued growth relative to trend. Public demand should remain supportive—policy settings and demographics (ageing, service intensity) will see to that—but households have limited buffer, and the capex cycle needs a catalyst. Housing supply programs highlighted in 2025 reports may gradually lift construction activity, yet execution risk is high.

Strategy for 2025–26: assume a flatter revenue curve, budget for stickier costs, and engineer productivity now. Firms that bank today’s consumption-led tailwinds, align with government demand, and prosecute a disciplined AI-and-automation roadmap will exit 2026 with stronger margins and higher return on invested capital.

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Australia’s June-quarter growth beat expectations on the strength of household consumption and government spending, even as public investment sagged. The upside surprise signals resilience, but the composition matters: firms face a consumption-led upswing with soft capex and a thin productivity cushion. For boards, this is a window to re-price, re-tool and reposition ahead of a tougher 2026 backdrop flagged by the RBA. Here’s the strategy brief—and the procurement map—for the next 12 months.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(105) "/invest-money/economy/australias-gdp-surprise-is-real-but-the-growth-mix-is-a-warning-light-for-operators" ["image"]=> string(128) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1759781498/pexels-marcus-ireland-313629-2009197_m3ob1y.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(87) "Australia's GDP surprise is real but operators should heed the growth mix warning light" } [1]=> object(stdClass)#8924 (57) { ["id"]=> int(19014) ["title"]=> string(93) "Households carried the quarter: what Australia’s upside GDP surprise means for strategy now" ["alias"]=> string(89) "households-carried-the-quarter-what-australias-upside-gdp-surprise-means-for-strategy-now" ["introtext"]=> string(597) "

Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker isn’t the headline; it’s the mix: household and government consumption did the heavy lifting while public investment slumped. Bank economists point to rising disposable incomes from lower income taxes, easing inflation and ongoing rate cuts as the spark. For leaders, this is a demand pivot that reshapes pricing, hiring, inventory and capex decisions through FY26.

" ["fulltext"]=> string(7977) "

Key implication: A consumer-led rebound changes the playbook. The June quarter’s upside GDP surprise — driven by household and government spending and offset by a sharp drop in public investment — signals an economy tilting back toward services and everyday demand, not shovel-ready projects. That mix is supportive for revenue growth in consumer-facing sectors and government suppliers, but it can be margin-sensitive and volatile if investment and productivity stay weak.

The growth mix matters more than the magnitude

National accounts remind us that not all growth is created equal. A 0.6 per cent quarterly gain (1.8 per cent on the year) led by domestic final demand is very different to a capex-led upswing. Consumption- and government-driven growth is less capital-deep, more labour-intensive and prone to bottlenecks when supply is constrained. Public investment’s contraction — typically a proxy for large transport, energy and social infrastructure work — softens the outlook for heavy construction, engineering services and building materials even as government consumption (think health, aged care, education, disability support and public administration) stays firm.

Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (Belinda Allen, Harry Ottley and Lucinda Jerogin) highlight rising household disposable incomes as the key driver, pointing to lower income taxes, falling inflation and continued rate cuts. In short: the policy impulse is working its way into wallets and behaviour.

Household tailwinds: monetise demand without fuelling inflation

With real incomes recovering, the early-cycle beneficiaries are clear: discretionary retail, travel, hospitality, autos, digital services and household durables. The trick is to capture the uplift while protecting gross margin as input costs and wages normalise. Three moves stand out:

• Pricing architecture: Use mix over mark-up. Bundle premium variants, loyalty exclusives and subscription add-ons to lift average order value without broad-based price hikes that could dent volumes.
• Rate-sensitivity segmentation: Model customer cohorts by mortgage exposure and savings buffers. Target offers to the most rate-sensitive segments as cashflow improves, and time campaigns around anticipated RBA moves.
• Inventory agility: Shift from ‘just-in-case’ to ‘right-now’. Tighten supplier SLAs, shorten replenishment cycles and expand near-shore contingency to align with a demand upswing that could fade as the tax-and-rate impulse normalises.

Retailers and consumer platforms with robust data science will gain share by reading the inflection faster — tracking card spend, basket composition and cohort churn weekly, not quarterly.

Government demand is durable — but the capex slump changes the procurement map

Government final consumption is anchored by multi-year policy priorities: health system capacity, aged care reforms, disability services, defence preparedness, education and social services. Vendors in these verticals should expect steady tender volumes and growth in outcomes-based contracts. However, the fall in public investment signals fewer new megaprojects and more scrutiny on cost blowouts and delivery risk.

For contractors and suppliers, that means:

• Bid discipline over volume: Prioritise projects with collaborative contracting (alliances, ECI) and clear escalation clauses rather than chasing headline pipeline.
• Pivot to O&M and digital enablement: As capex slows, operating expenditure on asset maintenance, energy efficiency and digital infrastructure (identity, data-sharing, cyber) becomes the safer revenue stream.
• Capability over capacity: Skill depth in project controls, procurement analytics and sustainability reporting will beat meaningful scale in winning complex service-led government work.

Investment drought: the medium-term risk to productivity

The soft patch in public investment is a warning for the broader capital formation outlook. If private capex doesn’t step up, Australia risks a low-capacity, low-productivity expansion in which demand outpaces the economy’s ability to supply — a recipe for stop-start growth and stickier services inflation. That’s a strategic opening for corporates with balance sheet headroom to invest counter-cyclically.

Priority capex should target productivity multipliers: automation in warehousing and logistics; AI-enabled forecasting and customer service; electrification and process efficiency to cut energy intensity; and data platforms that unify finance, operations and customer signals. Firms that bank 3–5 percentage points in unit cost reduction through 2026 will be able to hold price while competitors are forced into discounting as the demand impulse fades.

Risk radar: what could derail the consumer-led glide path?

Three swing factors deserve board-level attention:

• Monetary policy path: A stronger-than-expected activity print could slow the pace of RBA rate cuts. That would temper mortgage relief and could cap discretionary spend later in the year. Build scenarios around different terminal rate assumptions and stress-test interest-sensitive revenue lines.
• Labour and wages: The labour market remains relatively tight even as momentum cools. Wage outcomes are easing with disinflation, but services-heavy growth can re-tighten capacity. Guard against margin squeeze by linking pay progression to measurable productivity gains and automating low-value tasks.
• External shocks: Commodity prices, China’s demand cycle and global supply chain pinch points can swing net exports and input costs. Hedge key commodities and diversify suppliers now, while volatility is subdued.

Competitive advantage: use the growth mix to take share

Early movers will translate the GDP mix into microeconomics. Leaders should:

• Re-optimise channel economics: With foot traffic improving and online penetration stabilising, rebalance spend between performance marketing and store productivity. Expect higher conversion and lower cost-per-acquisition as consumer confidence lifts.
• Lean into government adjacency: Health tech, workforce platforms, cyber security and data privacy solutions map neatly to government consumption growth and regulatory momentum. Co-develop pilots that convert OPEX into measurable outcomes.
• Balance sheet agility: Lock in medium-tenor funding ahead of any slowdown in the easing cycle. Use proceeds to pre-approve M&A or tuck-in tech acquisitions that accelerate productivity plays.

Outlook: a window to build resilience before the impulse fades

Consumption- and government-led growth can carry Australia through 2025, but it is policy-assisted and therefore time-limited. If capital formation doesn’t re-accelerate, the economy risks hitting capacity ceilings that crimp margins and complicate the RBA’s disinflation trajectory. The smarter strategy is two-speed: monetise the near-term demand pulse with disciplined pricing and targeted expansion, while funding productivity and capability investments that raise your non-inflationary speed limit.

In practical terms: align operating plans to a slightly stronger revenue environment over the next two quarters; keep hiring selective and automation-heavy; pre-commit to capex that delivers payback inside 24–36 months; and build policy and rate scenarios into your FY26 planning. The headline number grabbed attention. The growth mix should drive your decisions.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-24 23:39:35" ["slug"]=> string(95) "19014:households-carried-the-quarter-what-australias-upside-gdp-surprise-means-for-strategy-now" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9408 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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Australia’s economy expanded faster than expected in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP up 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 per cent year-on-year — the strongest pace in two years. The kicker isn’t the headline; it’s the mix: household and government consumption did the heavy lifting while public investment slumped. Bank economists point to rising disposable incomes from lower income taxes, easing inflation and ongoing rate cuts as the spark. For leaders, this is a demand pivot that reshapes pricing, hiring, inventory and capex decisions through FY26.

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In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of electricity subsidies in certain regions. This policy shift has led to an increase in household expenses, pushing the headline inflation rate to 3% year-over-year in August. However, the underlying inflation pressures appear to remain stable, according to key economic indicators.

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Krishna Bhimavarapu, the APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management, noted, "Electricity subsidy withdrawals in select regions led to a notable uptick in household expenses, driving headline inflation to 3% year-over-year in August." Despite this increase, Bhimavarapu emphasised that the trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI), a more accurate gauge of core inflation, continued to decline, reaching 2.6%. This suggests that the fundamental price pressures are still under control. "We maintain our view that inflation will stay within the RBA’s target range over the coming year," Bhimavarapu added. However, he also cautioned that the labour market requires vigilant monitoring as its momentum appears to be waning.

Adding to this perspective, Dwyfor Evans, Head of APAC Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, observed that the August inflation figures were slightly above expectations. "Australia August inflation came in a touch higher than expected at 3%yoy, but the widely watched Trimmed Mean indicator was weaker at 2.6%yoy from 2.7%," Evans explained. He also pointed out that while the PriceStats Australia series for August showed a relatively modest increase of 6 basis points, it does not fully capture the robust online price growth that has kept the annual rate above the target.

The implications of these inflation dynamics are significant for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it considers its monetary policy stance. Evans remarked, "The upshot is that the Reserve Bank will remain reluctant to signal an overly accommodative stance with markets centred on an unchanged cash rate at the September 30 meeting." This cautious approach is likely to support the Australian dollar, especially against other G10 currencies where central banks are continuing to ease policy rates.

The withdrawal of electricity subsidies, a key factor in the inflation uptick, is part of broader economic adjustments that households are currently navigating. These changes have prompted debates about the balance between necessary fiscal reforms and the immediate financial impact on consumers. The increase in household expenses due to higher electricity costs underscores the delicate interplay between government policy and economic stability.

As the RBA prepares for its upcoming meeting, the central bank is expected to weigh these inflationary pressures against the backdrop of a softening labour market. The RBA's decision on whether to adjust the cash rate will be closely watched by markets, given its potential impact on currency valuation and economic growth.

The labour market's slowing momentum, as highlighted by Bhimavarapu, is another critical factor that could influence the RBA's policy decisions. A weakening labour market may lead to subdued wage growth, which could, in turn, affect consumer spending and overall economic activity. This complex economic environment requires careful navigation to ensure that inflation remains within the target range while supporting economic growth.

In summary, the recent developments in Australia's inflation and economic landscape present a multifaceted challenge for policymakers. The interplay between subsidy withdrawals, inflation rates, and labour market dynamics will be crucial in shaping the RBA's approach in the coming months. As experts like Bhimavarapu and Evans continue to analyse these trends, their insights will be invaluable in understanding the broader economic implications for Australia.

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In a recent economic analysis, experts from State Street have highlighted significant developments in Australia's inflation landscape, attributing the changes primarily to the withdrawal of electricity subsidies in certain regions. This policy shift has led to an increase in household expenses, pushing the headline inflation rate to 3% year-over-year in August. However, the underlying inflation pressures appear to remain stable, according to key economic indicators.

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Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected uptick was primarily driven by robust consumer spending and government consumption, even as public investment saw a significant decline. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted that household spending increased by 0.9% in the quarter, with discretionary spending rising by 1.4% compared to a 0.5% increase in essential spending. 

" ["fulltext"]=> string(5370) "

Tom Lay, Head of National Accounts at the ABS, commented on the factors contributing to this consumer uplift, stating, "The consumer uplift was largely due to end-of-financial-year promotions, new product cycles, and an extended mid-year holiday period." This indicates that despite tighter financial conditions, there are still pockets of resilient demand in the economy.

The current economic scenario presents a classic late-cycle puzzle for executives: nominal resilience amid cost pressures, a capex wobble in the public pipeline, and an economy where the demand impulse is leaning more on household wallets and government services than on public investment. This has left business leaders with crucial decisions to make about how to navigate this complex landscape.

Strategic decisions for business leaders

As the quarter unfolded, leaders faced three primary choices, which continue to be relevant:

1. Retail and consumer brands: Should they accelerate promotional activities and product launches to tap into pent-up demand while safeguarding gross margins?
2. Contractors and asset-heavy firms: Should they re-sequence capacity in response to weaker public investment and pivot towards private and maintenance backlogs?
3. Policy and finance leaders: Should they allow government consumption to bridge growth while reassessing public investment timing and mix, balancing inflation and debt sustainability risks?

With discretionary spending outpacing essentials, the signal was clear: targeted promotions and well-timed releases can still unlock consumer spending. However, the decline in public investment serves as a caution against broad-based expansion. The focus should be on micro-targeted growth rather than blanket strategies.

Execution strategies and outcomes

Successful firms executed three key operational strategies:

1. Revenue science: Pricing teams leveraged end-of-financial-year windows to test elasticity by category and SKU, shifting promotions towards high-velocity items and limited drops. Merchandising aligned inventory with launch calendars to exploit the product-release tailwind noted by the ABS.
2. Cost and cash discipline: Finance leaders maintained tight working capital, shortening stock turns in discretionary categories and negotiating supplier terms to prevent margin leakage from heavy promotions.
3. Portfolio pivot: Engineering and construction businesses rebalanced bid pipelines towards private refurbishments, recurring OPEX programs, and smaller, faster-turn projects as public capex softened, preserving utilisation and cash conversion.

Government agencies, meanwhile, maintained consumption through service delivery in health, education, and social services, steadying aggregate demand while delaying or reshaping capital-heavy projects. This mix supported GDP growth in the quarter but shifted activity away from construction-adjacent sectors.

Market trends and competitive dynamics

Globally, advanced economies are exhibiting a "selective resilience" pattern: households spend when value is evident and timing is convenient, while governments support services even as capital programs are reassessed. Australia's experience fits this mould, with promotional timing and product cycles playing a significant role in unlocking discretionary spending.

Retailers that choreographed promotions with fresh releases saw higher conversion rates without resorting to unsustainable markdowns. Omnichannel players captured the holiday and events bump through capacity-flexible fulfilment and targeted media. Service providers aligned with government consumption, such as in health and education, enjoyed steadier utilisation compared to their capex-dependent peers.

Risks and sustainability debate

Three key risks define the outlook and should guide boardroom scenarios:

1. Inflation stickiness: Demand-led growth can complicate disinflation, especially if supply capacity is tight, potentially prolonging restrictive financial conditions.
2. Fiscal composition risk: Reliance on government consumption over investment supports short-term GDP but may dull productivity gains typically associated with high-return infrastructure.
3. Consumer durability: While discretionary strength helped this quarter, household balance sheets face ongoing pressure from elevated costs. If the promotional stimulus fades, momentum could moderate.

As one ABS perspective underscores, the quarter's consumer lift was tightly linked to promotions, releases, and holiday timing—drivers that are, by nature, episodic. The policy debate will centre on whether to re-accelerate public investment to support medium-term productivity while safeguarding fiscal anchors.

Australia's economic performance in the June quarter highlights the importance of targeted strategies and precise execution in navigating a complex economic landscape. Business leaders must continue to balance short-term demand opportunities with long-term investment in productivity to sustain growth.

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Australia's economy has delivered a surprising performance for the June 2025 quarter, surpassing expectations with a growth rate of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. This unexpected uptick was primarily driven by robust consumer spending and government consumption, even as public investment saw a significant decline. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted that household spending increased by 0.9% in the quarter, with discretionary spending rising by 1.4% compared to a 0.5% increase in essential spending. 

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In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul for the 46th Joint Meeting of the Australia-Korea Business Council (AKBC) and the Korea-Australia Business Council (KABC). The meeting, scheduled from September 15-17, aims to deepen trade relations and unlock billions of dollars in potential trade and investment opportunities between the two nations.

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Since the signing of the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA) in 2014, Korea has emerged as Australia’s third-largest export market and its fourth-largest two-way trading partner. Despite this robust trading relationship, Korean companies have yet to become major investors in Australia, indicating untapped potential across various sectors.

The summit will address key sectors such as energy security, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and the defence and space industries. These discussions are timely, coming just weeks before the upcoming APEC Summit in Korea, which will see the participation of global leaders, including Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Australian Ambassador to Seoul, H.E. Mr Jeff Robinson, who is set to deliver the opening address at the Joint Meeting, emphasized the enduring partnership between the two countries. "The fact that this Joint Meeting has been running for nearly half a century is indicative of the strength and longevity of the trade and investment relationship between Australia and the Republic of Korea," he stated. Robinson highlighted the complementary nature of the two economies and the critical role played by the AKBC and KABC in fostering this growth. "The AKBC and KABC have played an integral role in this growth and will continue to be indispensable as we take new opportunities and address new challenges together, including the energy transition, supply chain resilience and a changing strategic environment," he added.

AKBC Chairman, The Hon. Martin Ferguson AM, pointed out the strategic importance of the trilateral relationship between Japan, Australia, and South Korea. "Whilst Australia must manage its relationship with China and the US more than ever, the potential axis of Japan, Australia and South Korea working together from a trade and geopolitical point of view has never been stronger," Ferguson remarked. He also noted the need for Australia to streamline regulatory processes to attract Korean investment, particularly in areas like critical minerals, defence, and agri-foods. "It's now or never for Australia. Front up to regulatory reform and lay out the red carpet to Korean investment," Ferguson urged.

The meeting's theme, "Forging Strategic Resilience: Enhancing Korea–Australia Industry, Innovation, and Sustainability," underscores the importance of not only economic but also cultural ties. Post-Covid, Korean visitor numbers to Australia have rebounded strongly, and the global popularity of K-culture, including the recent success of the Netflix animation "K-POP Demon Hunters," highlights the cultural exchange between the two nations.

Educational exchanges are another focal point, with Korean students currently ranking as the 14th largest international cohort in Australia. This presents an opportunity for growth in higher education collaborations.

AKBC CEO Liz Griffin highlighted the transformative impact of KAFTA and the potential for future collaboration in emerging industries. "The signing of KAFTA in 2014 supercharged our trading ties and opened the door for many industries to benefit as regulation barriers were removed and deeper bonds were created between businesses," Griffin said. She stressed the importance of the clean energy transition, suggesting that both countries should collaborate on green hydrogen exports and carbon capture agreements. "This Joint Meeting comes at a critical juncture in global trade, and we look forward to deepening our ties further," Griffin concluded.

The event is supported by partners including ANZ, Low Emissions Technology Australia, Pilot Energy, University of Queensland, Arafura Rare Earths, Export Finance Australia, and PLS, reflecting a broad commitment to enhancing bilateral trade and investment relationships. As the meeting unfolds, all eyes will be on the potential agreements and partnerships that could redefine the economic landscape between Australia and Korea.

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In a significant effort to bolster economic ties and explore new avenues for investment, Australian and Korean leaders, alongside business executives and government officials, are gathering in Seoul for the 46th Joint Meeting of the Australia-Korea Business Council (AKBC) and the Korea-Australia Business Council (KABC). The meeting, scheduled from September 15-17, aims to deepen trade relations and unlock billions of dollars in potential trade and investment opportunities between the two nations.

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Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: short-term revenue tailwinds alongside medium-term capacity risk if private capex stays on ice. With GDP up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, the cycle has shifted from cost squeeze to demand capture — but the investment window for 2026 is closing fast. Leaders who price with precision, manage working capital aggressively and pre-commit smart capex will bank the upside while competitors wait.

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Australia’s headline numbers surprised on the upside, but the underlying composition matters more than the beat. GDP rose 0.6% in the June quarter (vs 0.5% expected), lifting annual growth to 1.8% — the strongest since late 2023 despite full-year growth of just 1.3%, one of the softest in decades excluding the pandemic slump. The engine was household consumption and government outlays; public investment fell, and business investment remained subdued. That mix delivers revenue now but stores up supply-side risk later.

The signal in the noise: why the beat matters for boardrooms

Translate the national accounts into operating KPIs and you get three priorities. First, demand is back in discretionary pockets, especially services, so volume recovery is possible where price-led revenue dominated 2023–24. Second, margin math is improving as inflation cools but input costs remain sticky — pricing needs to shift from blanket increases to micro-yield management. Third, capacity constraints will reappear in 2026 unless private capex turns: watch lead times, workforce availability, and financing spreads as your early-warning system.

In short: monetise demand now, but build option value for investment when rates and policy clarity allow.

Demand drivers unpacked: what actually moved GDP

Households did more of the lifting. Easing inflation and mid-2024 personal income tax changes boosted disposable incomes, while pent-up services demand persisted. Government consumption added further momentum — think health, education and defence activity — even as public investment contracted, reflecting timing effects across major projects. Net exports contributed little overall as stronger domestic demand pulled in imports.

Framework lens — cyclical vs structural: the consumption lift is largely cyclical (real incomes stabilising, confidence off the lows), not structural productivity-driven growth. Government demand is policy-determined and reversible. Meanwhile, lagging private capex signals caution about longer-run capacity — a structural concern for 2026–27.

Sector scoreboard: retail revival vs construction drag

Retail and services saw the clearest turn. Discretionary categories such as hospitality and travel benefited from improving real incomes and aggressive end-of-financial-year promotions, while grocery volumes stabilised and private-label mix expanded — a margin lever for supermarkets. Digital and omnichannel investments made in 2022–23 are now paying off as retailers convert traffic into higher attachment rates and lower fulfilment costs.

Construction remains split. Engineering activity tied to public projects is rolling over as program timing shifts, while residential is constrained by approvals bottlenecks, financing costs and labour tightness. Commercial property capex stays selective; landlords and tenants are renegotiating footprints around hybrid work and fit-out costs. For suppliers, that means lumpy order books, elongated sales cycles and heavier reliance on framework agreements.

Pricing, wages and margin math

Inflation has eased from its peak but remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band, while wage growth is solid and productivity mixed. That makes blanket price rises a blunt instrument. Better playbooks are: dynamic promos using contribution-margin thresholds; indexation clauses tethered to verifiable cost drivers; and SKU-level rationalisation to trade customers into higher-margin alternatives. In labour-intensive services, a mix of multi-skilling, AI-assisted scheduling and throughput analytics can protect margin without resorting to across-the-board price hikes.

Working capital is the quiet hero of this phase. With volumes normalising, inventory turns should improve, but demand variance is high. Tighten S&OP cadence, commit to vendor-managed inventory where suppliers can carry buffer stock, and use early-pay discounts to harvest risk-free returns if cash is abundant.

Why capex is lagging — and how to time the cycle

Boards are hesitating for three reasons: interest rate uncertainty, policy ambiguity on infrastructure sequencing, and mixed global signals on trade and tariffs. The hurdle rate problem is real: when the cost of capital is volatile, option value rises and investment defers. Leading indicators to watch: equipment finance approvals, building approvals, hiring intentions, and bid pipelines for government tenders.

Timing strategy: pre-invest in low-regret capacity (automation retrofits, cybersecurity, data infrastructure), keep shovel-ready projects through design and approvals, and negotiate contingent procurement with price locks where possible. Use flexible financing — a blend of operating leases for equipment, green-linked loans where applicable, and covenant-light tranches — to keep optionality without overcommitting balance sheet.

Policy and scenarios: what the RBA and Canberra do next

Policy is the swing factor for H2 2025–2026. The RBA remains data-dependent as inflation trends lower but not yet home; fiscal support from government consumption persists even as public investment dips. Industry research desks are cautious: one major global bank expects slower growth in H2 2025 — around 1.0% in Q3 and 0.5% in Q4 — citing policy uncertainty and trade frictions as drags on business investment and household spending, while noting solid labour markets limit recession risk. For planning, build three scenarios:

- Base case: growth moderates as consumption normalises; RBA holds then eases as inflation nears target; AUD range-bound; capex picks up late 2026. Action: price for value, protect service levels, advance shovel-ready designs.

- Downside: external shock or tighter global financial conditions; unemployment edges up; discretionary spend fades. Action: trigger cost and capex gates, pivot to resilience SKUs/services, intensify collections and supplier risk scoring.

- Upside: faster disinflation and clearer policy pipeline for infrastructure; earlier rates easing; business confidence turns. Action: accelerate capex, lock in long-dated supply and talent, lean into export channels where FX is favourable.

The executive playbook: five moves for the next 12 months

1) Precision pricing: move from broad increases to micro-segmentation, A/B test promo depth, and deploy real-time elasticity models to defend gross margin without sacrificing share.

2) Inventory agility: build dual-speed inventory — fast lanes for high-velocity SKUs with dynamic safety stock; slow lanes with tighter MOQs and vendor consignment to release cash.

3) Workforce productivity: offset wage pressure with scheduling optimisation, task automation and throughput benchmarks; invest in training that lifts revenue per labour hour in frontline roles.

4) Capex option value: maintain a portfolio of small, quick-payback projects (12–18 months) while preserving call options on larger bets; secure price holds on key equipment and standardise designs to compress lead times.

5) Balance sheet resilience: extend debt maturities opportunistically, hedge rate exposure where repricing risk is high, and use supply contracts with escalation/de-escalation clauses to cushion commodity swings.

The mix of household and government-led growth gives businesses a near-term revenue window. The leaders will bank it through disciplined margin management and convert it into durable advantage by being investment-ready the moment the cost of capital breaks in their favour.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2025-09-11 23:41:37" ["slug"]=> string(72) "18908:australias-growth-beat-is-real-but-its-the-wrong-kind-for-capacity" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#9452 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Australia’s economy outpaced forecasts in the June quarter as households opened wallets and government spending did the heavy lifting, even as public investment sagged. The signal for boardrooms: short-term revenue tailwinds alongside medium-term capacity risk if private capex stays on ice. With GDP up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, the cycle has shifted from cost squeeze to demand capture — but the investment window for 2026 is closing fast. Leaders who price with precision, manage working capital aggressively and pre-commit smart capex will bank the upside while competitors wait.

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