Economy

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary policy.

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State Street executives said the decision reflected optimism about inflation progress, though global uncertainties and labour market strength provided some offsetting concerns.

Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Markets, said the central bank's projections indicated a roadmap towards easing policy settings.

"The RBA eased the cash rate by 25bps, as widely expected," he said.

"Optimism on inflation was offset to some extent by uncertainty around the tariffs and the still strong jobs market, but projections on prices and rates alludes to a roadmap towards less restrictive policy."

Evans noted the decision provided clearer guidance than recent RBA communications.

"Some talk of a 'hawkish cut' before the decision, but global uncertainty aside, this was a clearer directional message from the RBA than we have seen for some time," he said.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, welcomed the rate reduction while highlighting potential economic headwinds ahead.

"Glad to see the RBA deliver on the widely expected 25 bps cut today," he said.

"Looking ahead, GDP growth in Q1 could tread water, as indicated by leading indicators."

Bhimavarapu suggested weaker growth could accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

"If growth surprises to the downside, we see higher chance for the cash rate reaching our forecast 3.10 per cent by December," he said.

The economist also flagged evolving global trade dynamics as a key consideration for future policy decisions.

"Global trade dynamics are looking to be reset with fast paced discussions between many countries," he said.

State Street manages $4.7 trillion in assets under management and provides custody and administration services for $46.8 trillion in assets globally.

The rate cut comes amid signs of moderating inflation pressures and concerns about economic growth momentum in Australia.

Financial markets had widely anticipated the 25 basis point reduction ahead of the RBA's decision.

The central bank's move reflects a shift from its previous cautious stance as policymakers balance inflation control with supporting economic growth.

State Street's forecast suggests further rate reductions could follow if economic conditions weaken more than expected.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, delivering on widespread market expectations while signalling a clearer directional shift towards less restrictive monetary policy.

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Strong employment growth in April has put expectations for multiple interest rate cuts at risk, though upcoming economic data may clarify the need for lower rates, according to State Street Global Advisors.

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Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, said headline employment jumped more than four times expectations in April, potentially due to flooding impacts on data collection in Queensland.

"Headline employment jumped over four times our expectation in April, perhaps due to a 'very low sample of responding households' in some parts of Queensland due to recent floods," he said.

The stronger-than-expected jobs data has created uncertainty around the pace of monetary policy easing.

"The data nonetheless puts our call for four more rate cuts this year at risk," Bhimavarapu said.

However, he suggested upcoming gross domestic product figures could provide clarity on the economic outlook and support the case for rate reductions.

"We believe the GDP data to be released on 4 June will reclarify the necessity for lower rates, especially as last week's data showed that retail volumes had stalled," he said.

Bhimavarapu maintained expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Reserve Bank's next meeting.

"We still expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25 bps next week to 3.85 per cent and maintain the view that the cash rate may end 2025 at 3.10 per cent," he said.

The economist's comments highlight the challenge facing the RBA in balancing labour market strength against broader economic softening.

Recent retail data showed consumer spending volumes have stalled, suggesting underlying economic weakness despite the robust employment figures.

State Street manages $4.7 trillion in assets under management and provides custody and administration services for $46.8 trillion in assets globally.

The labour force data comes as the central bank weighs inflation progress against economic growth concerns in determining future monetary policy settings.

Financial markets are closely watching employment trends and consumer spending patterns as key indicators for the pace of interest rate adjustments ahead.

The June GDP release will provide crucial insight into the broader economic momentum and may influence the RBA's approach to further rate cuts this year.

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Strong employment growth in April has put expectations for multiple interest rate cuts at risk, though upcoming economic data may clarify the need for lower rates, according to State Street Global Advisors.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent in the year to August, down from 3.5 per cent in July and 3.8 per cent in June.

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Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) President Leanne Pilkington said: "The annual movement for the monthly CPI excluding the volatile items of fruit and vegetables, automotive fuel and holiday travel and accommodation, rose 3.0 per cent in August, down from the July figure of 3.7 per cent and 4.0 per cent for June."

The annual trimmed mean, an important analytical series, also decreased to 3.4 per cent in August from 3.8 per cent in July and 4.1 per cent in June.

Pilkington noted that all three broad measures of inflation are at their lowest levels since 2021, before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began increasing interest rates in May 2022.

The most significant price rises at the group level were in Housing (up 2.6 per cent), food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 3.4 per cent), and alcohol and tobacco (up 6.6 per cent).

Rental increases are also showing signs of moderation, with a 6.8 per cent rise in the 12 months to August, down from 6.9 per cent in July and 7.1 per cent in June.

REIA's Real Estate Market Facts report indicates that vacancy rates increased in most capital cities, suggesting the slowdown in rental increases may continue.

Pilkington stated: "With a consistent downward trend across the three measures of CPI, including the RBA's trimmed mean, we are steadily inching our way to the RBA's target zone and the anticipation that a rate cut cannot be far away."

However, she cautioned that current speculation about abolishing negative gearing could halt this progress, potentially leading to additional rent increases of between 7 and 12 per cent, according to various studies.

The REIA represents 85% of Australian real estate agencies, encompassing 46,793 businesses that employ 133,360 Australians.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-09-25 05:19:37" ["slug"]=> string(70) "18642:australian-inflation-continues-downward-trend-nearing-rba-target" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8907 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent in the year to August, down from 3.5 per cent in July and 3.8 per cent in June.

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string(0) "" ["value"]=> string(0) "" ["rawvalue"]=> string(0) "" } } ["link"]=> string(86) "/invest-money/economy/australian-inflation-continues-downward-trend-nearing-rba-target" ["image"]=> string(119) "https://res.cloudinary.com/momentum-media-group-pty-ltd/image/upload/v1728289247/pexels-weekendplayer-186461_ce08bn.jpg" ["image_alt"]=> string(65) "Australian inflation continues downward trend, nearing RBA target" } [3]=> object(stdClass)#8410 (57) { ["id"]=> int(18625) ["title"]=> string(76) "UK markets poised for gains after election, global geopolitical risks remain" ["alias"]=> string(75) "uk-markets-poised-for-gains-after-election-global-geopolitical-risks-remain" ["introtext"]=> string(220) "

Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer at AXA Investment Managers, has provided an optimistic outlook for UK markets following the recent general election, while cautioning about ongoing global geopolitical risks.

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Key points from Iggo's analysis include:

1. UK market outlook:

• The clear election result is expected to boost UK equity markets and lead to a rally in the gilt market.
• Iggo predicts lower political risk premiums and potential Bank of England interest rate cuts.
• He cites historical precedent, noting that after Labour's 1997 victory, the FTSE 100 rose 35% and gilt yields fell 160 basis points within a year.

2. Global economic conditions:

• Iggo believes the US economy may achieve a "soft landing," avoiding recession.
• He suggests interest rates may have peaked but could remain at current levels for an extended period.

3. Geopolitical risks:

• While acknowledging that geopolitical events can disrupt markets, Iggo advises investors that markets often overreact initially, creating buying opportunities.
• He identifies a potential conflict between the West and an alliance of China, Russia, India, and others as a significant tail risk.

4. US election impact:

• Iggo notes potential "Trump wins" trades, which could be bearish for Treasuries, bullish for the dollar, and may work against the technology sector.
• However, he states these factors are not currently impacting market pricing.

5. Near-term outlook:

• Iggo expects July to be historically favorable for bond and equity returns.
• He cautions that the latter half of 2024 might be less calm for markets.

Iggo concludes by advising investors to "trade the economics not the politics" in the short term, while remaining aware of potential longer-term geopolitical risks.

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Learn the best strategies in investing and options like cryptocurrency, bonds, mutual funds, proper" ["page_description"]=> string(7) "nestegg" ["page_rights"]=> NULL ["robots"]=> NULL ["check_access_rights"]=> int(0) ["access-view"]=> bool(true) } ["initialized":protected]=> bool(true) ["separator":protected]=> string(1) "." } ["displayDate"]=> string(19) "2024-07-10 00:02:57" ["slug"]=> string(81) "18625:uk-markets-poised-for-gains-after-election-global-geopolitical-risks-remain" ["event"]=> object(stdClass)#8918 (3) { ["afterDisplayTitle"]=> string(0) "" ["beforeDisplayContent"]=> string(132) "

• Yes

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Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer at AXA Investment Managers, has provided an optimistic outlook for UK markets following the recent general election, while cautioning about ongoing global geopolitical risks.

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Australia's top 100 co-operative and mutual businesses have posted a record performance in the 2023 financial year, growing total revenue by 16.1 percent to $43.2 billion.

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The latest National Mutual Economy (NME) report, published by the Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals (BCCM), revealed strong revenue growth across most parts of the sector despite global inflationary pressures. The report also showed a significant return to profitability for the sector, with the top 100 posting a combined net profit of $1.83 billion, more than double the previous year's $712 million. This strong earnings turnaround reflected improved performance by co-ops and mutuals operating in health insurance, agribusiness and motoring services. However, those in financial services were impacted by the higher interest rate environment, which dampened consumer borrowing. The top 100 list features some of Australia's biggest unlisted companies, including West Australian grain handler CBH, health insurers HCF and HBF, motoring groups NRMA, RACQ and RAA, as well as dairy producer Norco. Melina Morrison, Chief Executive Officer of the BCCM, said the strong financial performance during a period of economic instability demonstrated the resilience of the sector. "The fact that revenue continues to grow, despite volatile economic circumstances for those who sell their goods overseas, or in competitive markets, shows co-ops and mutuals proudly hold their own year in, year out," Morrison said. She added that co-ops and mutuals accept the need to make a profit for sustainability and growth but place more value in providing services to their customers, who are also their owner members. Co-operatives and mutuals exist for the benefit of their members, which may be customers, staff, suppliers, or a combination of stakeholders. Unlike listed companies, they are not motivated by the need to maximise profits and pay dividends to investors. Instead, they can use surplus funds to reinvest in services and deliver benefits to members. Eight in every 10 Australians are members of at least one co-operative or mutual. Morrison highlighted the sector's ability to counter inflationary pressures, saying, "In periods of high inflation, co-ops and mutuals are better able to counter headwinds because they keep their operating costs lean and do what they can to reinvest in their businesses and people." The NME report showed that Australia's co-ops and mutuals had combined active memberships of 34.7 million during the 2023 financial year, up from a previous 33.3 million. This growth occurred despite the number of co-ops and mutuals falling slightly to 1819, partly reflecting merger activity within the sector. Jobs growth in the sector was also strong, with co-operatives and mutuals employing 89,000 people, up from 76,000 in the previous year. CBH retained its position as the largest member-owned business, with turnover of $6.19 billion, slightly down on the previous year's $6.23 billion. It was followed by health insurer HCF ($3.9 billion), automotive group Capricorn Society ($3.4 billion) and Queensland's RACQ ($2.39 billion). Agribusinesses benefited from strong commodity prices, which were partly offset by higher input costs. Although much of the supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19 had abated, the sector continued to feel the impact of the war in Ukraine.

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Australia's top 100 co-operative and mutual businesses have posted a record performance in the 2023 financial year, growing total revenue by 16.1 percent to $43.2 billion.

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The Federal Reserve's expected decision to maintain US interest rates at a two-decade high at its sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday is set to put pressure on emerging market central banks to hike their own rates, with significant implications for investors globally, according to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.

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"The Fed is expected to hold rates at the two-decade high that was first implemented last July, and markets are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of rate cuts this year," Green said.

"This puts the squeeze on emerging-market central banks – including countries like South Africa, India and Mexico - to hike their own rates in order to address currency depreciation, inflationary pressures, capital flight risks, and external debt servicing concerns."

Should policymakers move to raise rates in emerging economies, global investors could be impacted, with higher yields on government bonds issued by these countries likely to attract foreign investors seeking higher returns.

"Higher interest rates in emerging markets can lead to higher yields on government bonds issued by these countries. This is likely to attract foreign investors seeking higher returns, resulting in increased demand for emerging-market bonds," Green noted.

"In turn, higher yields may also lead to capital outflows from developed markets as investors reallocate their portfolios to take advantage of better returns in emerging-market bonds."

Equity markets in those countries and beyond could also be affected, with sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as financials and utilities, likely to benefit from higher rates due to increased profitability, while those that rely on debt financing, such as real estate and consumer discretionary, will face challenges as borrowing costs rise.

Higher interest rates in emerging markets will also attract foreign capital inflows, leading to appreciation in the local currency, which affects currency pairs globally as changes in exchange rates between emerging-market currencies and major currencies like the US dollar can impact trade flows, corporate earnings, and cross-border investments.

"US rates are set to be held steady again. Focus will be on Powell's speech after the announcement," Green said.

"We expect a hawkish tone and this will add pressure to the emerging-markets central banks to raise rates."

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The Federal Reserve's expected decision to maintain US interest rates at a two-decade high at its sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday is set to put pressure on emerging market central banks to hike their own rates, with significant implications for investors globally, according to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.

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