Invest
NAB predicts house prices will stall before dropping significantly
A “turning point” for Australia’s property market is expected to occur later this year.
NAB predicts house prices will stall before dropping significantly
A “turning point” for Australia’s property market is expected to occur later this year.
NAB has revised down its outlook for property prices in 2022 and 2023, after predicting the first interest rate hike to occur in November this year.
Property prices are now expected to reach a “turning point” in the second half of 2022 before falling in 2023, according to the latest residential property survey from NAB’s Group Economics, led by group chief economist Alan Oster.
“Overall, we see dwelling prices rising around 3 per cent in 2022 before a decline of around 10 per cent in 2023,” NAB said.
“We see this as a relatively orderly decline, and it is important to remember this correction comes after a very sharp run up in prices over the last year. More broadly we expect the economy to continue seeing healthy outcomes.”
NAB foresees price drops of 11.4 per cent in both Sydney and Melbourne in 2023, along with declines of 8.1 per cent in Perth, 6.4 per cent in Brisbane, 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, and 4.1 per cent in Hobart.
Moreover, price growth across the capital cities this year is anticipated to be only a fraction of the growth seen in 2021.
For the full year, growth of 1.9 per cent is expected in Sydney compared to 25.3 per cent last year, while Melbourne is expected to record growth of 1.2 per cent, down from 15.1 per cent.
“We have brought forward the timing of the correction we expect in house prices to late-2022 as affordability constraints begin to bite and rising mortgage rates place downward pressure on prices,” said NAB.
“This would offset gains seen in early-2022, so that overall, prices end the year roughly flat.”
House prices in Brisbane are predicted to end this year 4.2 per cent higher, with growth of 4.5 per cent in Hobart, 3.5 per cent in Adelaide and 1.2 per cent in Perth.
“More broadly we expect the economy to continue seeing healthy outcomes. With above trend growth this year, we see unemployment drifting lower, boosting wage growth and driving more sustainable inflation,” NAB said.
“This would see the RBA begin normalising rates from November 2022 with a steady series of hikes to come through 2023 and 2024.”
RELATED ARTICLES
Property
What Adds The Most Value To Properties?
Wondering how to up the value of your property? Properties are worth a lot of money in general, but there’s always a way to maximise value. The good news is that most of the things you can do to ...Read more
Property
Centuria reports strong growth in alternative real estate sectors for FY24
Centuria Capital Group has reported significant growth in alternative real estate sectors for the 2024 financial year, driving stable performance and increased guidance for FY25. Read more
Property
How to leverage equity in your home for investment or renovation
Home equity, the value of your property minus any debts owed, is a powerful financial resource many homeowners in Australia can utilize to further their financial goals. Whether you're looking to ...Read more
Property
Exploring REITs: Real estate investment without buying property
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) offer a compelling investment alternative for those interested in the real estate market but may not want to endure the complexities and capital requirements of ...Read more
Property
Retirement communities: a pivotal element in meeting Australia's housing targets
The Retirement Living Council (RLC) has recommended that retirement communities should be considered a vital part in the Australian Government's initiative to fulfill the Housing Australia Future Fund ...Read more
Property
Australians adjust financial strategies amid changing property market dynamics
The 2023 calendar year saw Australian borrowers acquiring a total of $300.9 billion in new loans for property purchases, marking a 12.7% decrease from the previous year. Read more
Property
Split home loans unlocking doors for Aussie buyers
Australians are teaming up to dive into the real estate market and seize the advantages of home ownership, with the trend of split home loans surging as family and friends unite to buy properties ...Read more
Property
Real estate investment: Spotting high-growth potentials
Investing in real estate has long been a favoured approach for Australians looking to grow their wealth. Read more
Property
What Adds The Most Value To Properties?
Wondering how to up the value of your property? Properties are worth a lot of money in general, but there’s always a way to maximise value. The good news is that most of the things you can do to ...Read more
Property
Centuria reports strong growth in alternative real estate sectors for FY24
Centuria Capital Group has reported significant growth in alternative real estate sectors for the 2024 financial year, driving stable performance and increased guidance for FY25. Read more
Property
How to leverage equity in your home for investment or renovation
Home equity, the value of your property minus any debts owed, is a powerful financial resource many homeowners in Australia can utilize to further their financial goals. Whether you're looking to ...Read more
Property
Exploring REITs: Real estate investment without buying property
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) offer a compelling investment alternative for those interested in the real estate market but may not want to endure the complexities and capital requirements of ...Read more
Property
Retirement communities: a pivotal element in meeting Australia's housing targets
The Retirement Living Council (RLC) has recommended that retirement communities should be considered a vital part in the Australian Government's initiative to fulfill the Housing Australia Future Fund ...Read more
Property
Australians adjust financial strategies amid changing property market dynamics
The 2023 calendar year saw Australian borrowers acquiring a total of $300.9 billion in new loans for property purchases, marking a 12.7% decrease from the previous year. Read more
Property
Split home loans unlocking doors for Aussie buyers
Australians are teaming up to dive into the real estate market and seize the advantages of home ownership, with the trend of split home loans surging as family and friends unite to buy properties ...Read more
Property
Real estate investment: Spotting high-growth potentials
Investing in real estate has long been a favoured approach for Australians looking to grow their wealth. Read more
