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Hawkish central bank expectations dampen market sentiment, boosting dollar
Recent economic data and central bank communications have dampened the market's appetite for risk assets, leading to a stronger US dollar and a pullback in commodities and equities, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Hawkish central bank expectations dampen market sentiment, boosting dollar
Recent economic data and central bank communications have dampened the market's appetite for risk assets, leading to a stronger US dollar and a pullback in commodities and equities, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The week began with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which revealed that many Fed members questioned whether keeping rates "high for longer" would be sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation, suggesting that further rate hikes might be necessary.
In the UK, Prime Minister Sunak announced a general election for early July, earlier than expected, diminishing hopes for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in June. Additionally, hotter-than-expected British CPI data further reduced the likelihood of policy easing in the near term.
In the euro area, data showed that wage growth increased 4.7% in Q1, raising concerns among officials who had been relying on a slowdown to keep inflation under control.
Finally, stronger-than-expected US economic data, including accelerating services and manufacturing PMIs and soft jobless claims, dealt a final blow to market bulls.
"If the reflation trade loses momentum due to a hawkish shift in major central bank expectations, we shall see a period of pullback and profit taking in risk assets, and a further dollar appreciation against major counterparts," Ozkardeskaya said.
US crude oil prices extended losses below the 100-day moving average, while copper futures and gold prices also declined significantly. The US dollar index strengthened past the 50-day moving average, and major currency pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD faced downward pressure.
Amid the market turmoil, Nvidia remained a bright spot, jumping more than 9% after beating revenue expectations and providing a strong forecast. Ozkardeskaya believes that the company's positive outlook and the growing demand for AI suggest that the $1000 per share level could become a new support for investors looking to capitalize on the stock's bullish momentum.
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