The Stoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 reached new record highs yesterday, while the S&P 500 stalled. The AI rally, which has been driving major US indices, appears to be losing momentum, with companies like Nvidia and AMD experiencing declines from their March peaks.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains committed to its inflation target, with recent comments from Fed speakers Susan Collins and Lisa Cook suggesting that reaching the 2% goal may take longer than previously anticipated. Cook also noted that firms have ample earnings to cover debt payments and that financial firms are well-positioned to absorb shocks.
In contrast, central banks in Europe are taking a different approach. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate in Q1 due to a sufficient slowdown in inflation, and the Riksbank opted for a 25bp cut yesterday, signaling the possibility of two more rate cuts this year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates in June, and the Bank of England (BoE) may provide more details on its plans to lower rates at today's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
European policymakers are determined to ease their monetary policies regardless of the Fed's actions, despite the risk of currency depreciation and increased domestic price pressures. As long as the dollar's appreciation remains manageable, the European currencies may continue to depreciate against the US dollar.
The BoE is not expected to cut its policy rate today, but the MPC is anticipated to have less agreement on the timing of future rate cuts. Four out of nine MPC members are considered hawkish, while Governor Bailey has shifted his stance from "it's too early to talk about cuts" to "the inflation dynamics between the US and UK are diverging." Some analysts see a small chance of a BoE rate cut in June, alongside the ECB, but a more realistic scenario is an August cut.
The British Pound (GBP) is currently trading in a bearish consolidation zone, and unless unexpectedly hawkish statements are made, it is likely to continue attracting sellers near the 1.25 level leading up to next week's US inflation report.
