NAB optimistic on jobs market despite another payroll miss

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September 13 2021
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NAB has expressed confidence in the short-term future of the Australian jobs market, despite payroll jobs decreasing by 0.7 of a percentage point in the last fortnight, following a drop of 1.8 per cent in the fortnight prior.

NAB optimistic on jobs market despite another payroll miss

Citing NSW’s reopening roadmap, which suggests large-scale freedoms for the vaccinated once the state reaches the 70 per cent jab target, NAB’s podcast host Phil Dobbie said the contraction in payroll jobs may only have a slight impact on the economy.

“October the 11th is when we hope to hit that 70 per cent target, which Gladys Berejiklian is saying in NSW will mean if you’ve had both jabs, you can go shopping, you can get a haircut, you can eat out,” he said.

“Life is going to go back to normal by then.”

Should this be the case, it is expected that sectors that have remained closed during NSW’s protracted lockdown, such as retail and catering, will see a bumper demand for new staff as the NSW population embraces their freedoms.

Alongside this, it was the performance in other states that gave NAB confidence that the jobs market would rapidly rebound on the easing of restrictions, improving national statistics.

“We think jobs will rebound rapidly as the lockdowns ease,” said Gavin Friend, NAB director, markets strategy.

“They rose by 1.5 per cent in South Australia after rebounding from a late-July lockdown and they are broadly stable in the Northern Territory and Western Australia.”

Despite this optimism, other market commentators have cast doubt on the jobs recovery.

Taking it a step further, on Thursday’s market close podcast, CommSec theorised that a complete “return to normal” market conditions may take some time and that the sustainability of reopening was yet to be seen — all of which impact the recovery in Australia’s job market.

“There is still an expectation that it would still be a difficult couple of months ahead (after easing restrictions) and won’t be a straightforward affair once that is the case as well,” the brokerage stated.

The largest falls in the job numbers were seen in the long-locked-down states of NSW and Victoria, with drops of 1.2 per cent and 0.6 of a percentage point, respectively.

“Payroll jobs in NSW have now fallen by almost 8.5 per cent since the lockdowns began on the 26th June,” said Mr Friend.

Victoria is yet to announce a roadmap out of lockdown similar with NSW.

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